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Brexit Wars 3

lse:hsba
lse:lloy
lse:barc

#1

Well, maybe the only solution is to restart with a clean board.

Can I suggest that all participants desist from name-calling such as “Remainiac”, " Remoaner" and “Brexit B” for instance? Also, I think most of us would be grateful for considered posts which try to argue the case in a coherent manner without recourse to excessive repeat posting and without personal goading and bullying.

The original title was intended to be a reference to Brexit Wars within the Tory party and not between ourselves.

Best wishes to all,

Frog in a tree


#2

Completely argree. I look forward to questions being answered without the snide remarks. So clean slate. Lets start it. The question is this re ‘remain vote believe the uk economy will suffer’

So, has anyone got an input into what sectors will suffer, to cause the economic suffering? Im sure this would not be claimed, without this first being researched. And i cant find the sectors that remain arguement, believe will be the uk economic demise.

Has anybody got suggestions from the remain vote? Be good to see what the dour forecast is based on, so i can go and have a look at those uk sectors too.

Thanks in advance for the sector recommendations.


#3

The Irish are clearly not on board yet with Theresa May’s Brexit deal.

There are still issues over whether the deal is “time limited” or not. The Irish are saying that a time limited deal will not be acceptable and so is Boris Johnson in an article in The Sun. Of course, he along with other extreme Brexiters want a creeping Brexit.

Remainers will oppose any time limited agreement and if there was a referendum I would vote for Remain rather than leaving the door open for a creeping hard Brexit.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#4

When you say irish i think you mean the taoisach?

Im from Ireland and the general population are happy with it. But generally speaking, its because more irish in england than uk anyway lol (at least by blood line). So, we al want May to get her deal .


#5

But there wont be. Assuming your Prime Minister is correct.


#6

Well LC you had better refrain from calling other posters “thick” and “idiots” then?

IMHO,

SBK


#7

The tourism industry - hotels/resorts/travel companies - are suffering already. There are fewer French, German, Spanish, etc. booking holidays to UK because it is seen as a less welcoming place. This will cost the taxpayer.

The NHS is suffering already as nurses and doctors from EU countries are not coming and those that are here are leaving in their droves. The vacancies in NHS are at an all time high. This will cost the taxpayer.

Universitiy foreign students numbers are down already. These are the ones that pay more and therefore subsidise our own UK students fees. We can now not attract the best students from the EU and other countries - again we’re seen as less welcoming and less attractive country to study in. This will cost the taxpayer.

It’s patently obvious that these (already suffering) sectors - Health, Tourism and Education will suffer even more after Brexit. It just beggars belief to me that Brexiteers can’t see these facts and still cling on to misplaced notions of a long gone empire and insular island mentality.


#8

:rofl:


#9

Absolutely Sir. And you need to refrain from wishing a voting group dead, and stopping them gettnig jobs. Be a great board then.


#10

Brexit Wars 3. Worst trilogy ever.


#11

Hi Doug,

Tourism seems the one exception here as it may do rather well for years to come due to much weaker Sterling. There’s already been a steady increase in tourists to UK over the last 2 years, especially from US, China, Australia & even the Gulf States mentioned in some reports. But for the rest of your points, hard to disagree. - Regards.


#12

A good post Uncle Doug

The Office for National Statistics data supports your contention that there has been a decline in visits to the UK:

Main points
There were 3.3 million visits to the UK by overseas residents in April 2018 (11% fewer than in April 2017), 3.5 million visits in May 2018 (3% fewer than in May 2017) and 3.2 million visits in June 2018 (9% fewer than in June 2017).

There were falls in the number of visits compared with a year earlier, but it should be noted that visitor numbers were the highest ever recorded by the survey in the corresponding three-month period of 2017.

Overseas residents spent £1.8 billion on visits to the UK in April 2018 (14% less than in April 2017), £2.0 billion in May 2018 (6% less than in May 2018) and £2.0 billion in June 2018 (11% less than in June 2017).
UK residents made 6.3 million visits overseas in April 2018 (1% fewer than in April 2017), 6.2 million visits overseas in May 2018 (3% more than in May 2017) and 7.4 million visits overseas in June 2018 (2% fewer than in June 2017).

UK residents spent £3.3 billion on visits overseas in April 2018 (7% less than in April 2017), £3.8 billion in May 2018 (16% more than in May 2017) and £4.5 billion in June 2018 (4% less than in June 2017).

For the sake of clarity, we should point out that the exchange rate is a factor in both the numbers holidaying in the UK where the post-Brexit fall in sterling benefitted incoming tourists and also in the number of migrant workers in the UK including in our NHS where the fall in sterling made working here less remunerative in euro terms than previously.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#13

Feel free to avoid it then Old Eyes!

Frog


#14

It was a joke, FIAT. Lighten up.


#15

Likewise

Cheers,

Frog


#16

@broadmoor1 - Sorry - maybe I’m wrong on tourism - I was going by what I’d read/heard in the media about travel companies having fewer bookings from the EU. However, your own link states that it is only a forecast and that it’s based on “no official data from 2018”. It also says “As we approach the date of Brexit, sentiment about Britain and concern about post-Brexit travel practicalities are downside risks for the forecast.” Maybe the low value of sterling is ironically encouraging some inward tourism and perhaps they’re not using the traditional travel companies but making their own way here. However, I would expect business travel will be lower post Brexit once we’re isolated.


#17

Uncle Doug

Business visits to the UK are already down:

"Business visits were weaker in 2017, compared to 2016 and although showing recent signs of growth, business visits in June 2018 were down 23% on June 2017. Business visits in the first six months of 2018 are down 8% on the start of 2017. Over the longer term, rolling 12 months to June 2018, business visits were 8% behind the previous 12-month period (July 2016 - June 2017). "

From visitbritain.org

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#18

@frog_in_a_tree - thanks for posting some facts from reliable sources. Much prefer to have those than links to unsubstantiated forecasts.


#19

This is essentially a forum for miserable people to be as downbeat and negative about the future as possible.

A question for you Frog: In the budget last week the OBR forecasts were significantly better than expected, in part due to much higher tax receipts than forecast. Some economists feel this is because the economy is doing a lot better than the official figures report, especially in certain areas such as digital that are hard to measure.

None of this exactly squares with your Armageddon view of the current state of play does it?


#20

@Uncle_Doug No problem, As a rule of thumb i always back up my findings with facts/stats , Unlike some who continue to conduct there own holiday surveys in cafe’s in france and report them back “Facts”