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Brexit Wars 3

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#2164

Latest ruling that A50 reversal is possible leaves door wide open for Peoples Vote.
May’s deal will fail.
No deal will fail, but support for Peoples Vote will rise.
Some time in 2019 we’ll get the Peoples Vote … hopefully with fewer lies than last time.
Remain will win. Democracy in action. Bring on the riots.


#2165

The court hasn’t passed the ruling yet, but it is now more likely that they will.


#2166

What would be on the Ballot paper for a Peoples Vote that wasn’t on the Original Peoples Vote in 2016 ?


#2167

How about : Was Brexit a crap idea? Yes or No ? :slight_smile:


#2168

macbonzo / soi -good afternoon,
You seem to have some sort of consensus on Italian debt.
Not sure how many others would agree if you look at the actual figures! Never let facts get in the way of a good argument.
In summary, Italy is a ‘basket case’ vying with Greece for the European record in the debt stake.s

Italy’s Public Debt Is Worse Than You Think
Jun. 6, 2018 6:37 AM ET
Desmond Lachman
Macro, currencies, banks

Before proceeding with its budget-busting measures, the new Italian government might want to consider how large the country’s public debt is. It might also want to take into account how short Italy’s public debt maturity is and how exposed the country is to the whims of the global bond market.
Italy’s public debt is officially estimated to be at around 133% of GDP, making Italy the second-most indebted country in the eurozone after Greece. However, as Carmen Reinhart has correctly pointed out, the official Italian debt numbers do not include the Bank of Italy’s debtor position of more than EUR400 billion in the European Central Bank’s Target 2 accounts.
If one adds the Bank of Italy’s Target 2 liabilities to the Italian public debt total, the public debt to GDP ratio rises to 160%, taking that ratio to its highest level in over 100 years. Sadly, there is every reason to expect that Italy’s Target 2 balance will worsen in the months ahead as the unsettled Italian political situation encourages capital flight.
Another reason to think the Italian official public debt numbers are understated is they do not take into account the likely cost of government support for the country’s troubled banking system. This support could be large considering that the Italian banks’ nonperforming loans amount to as much as 15% of their balance sheets, while almost a further 10% of their balance sheet is made up of Italian public bonds.
As if all of this were not bad enough, Italy’s public debt suffers from the fact that at around only 7 years the average maturity of the debt is relatively short. In practical terms, the country will have to roll over more than EUR600 billion of its debt over the next three years and more than half of its debt over the next five years. This could prove to be challenging in a less favourable global liquidity environment than at present.
It is against this backdrop that one has to hope the new Italian government quickly backs off its budget-busting proposals, which would make the country’s public debt even more unsustainable. Those proposals include the introduction of a guaranteed basic income and a flat income tax. Together those measures are estimated to increase Italy’s budget deficit by EUR100 billion.
If the Italian government does not become fiscally more responsible soon, we should brace ourselves for another round of the European sovereign debt crisis. That in turn could have repercussions for the global economy considering that with a public debt of more than US$2.5 billion, Italy is the world’s third-largest sovereign bond market.

Also – as bad for Private Debt!!
Source Trading Economics
Private Debt to GDP in Italy increased to 168.90 percent in 2017 from 168 percent in 2016. Private Debt to GDP in Italy averaged 154.70 percent from 1995 until 2017


#2169

So TM wants MPs to vote for her deal without knowing the full facts by not supplying the legal papers… and they says another Vote is a failure of democracy…

Theresa May is facing defeat in an unprecedented constitutional row after the Speaker, John Bercow, said there was an “arguable case” the government had acted in contempt of parliament over the publication of key Brexit papers.

breaking news
MPs vote to find the UK government in contempt of parliament after it refused to release official legal advice on Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
The vote spells trouble for May’s administration as she prepares for an upcoming parliamentary vote on the deal.
This is the first time a government has been found in contempt by parliament.

MORE breaking news
Backbench MPs led by Dominic Grieve have inflicted a humiliating defeat on the government, in a bid to ensure parliament can seize control of what happens in the crucial days after Theresa May’s Brexit deal is voted on.
While May was waiting to open five days of debate on her deal in the run-up to next week’s meaningful vote, MPs passed an amendment aimed at giving them more say over what happens next if she loses.


#2170

Maybe Facts rather than fears could be the basis for the debate this time… Tell the public the EU allows odd shaped bananas. Try this link…


#2171

Strange that they must be panicking with a European recession looming looks like the still need our money


#2172

The government is getting a taste of the power of Parliament to take back control of the Brexit shambles…I expect the government will have to get used to defeat…is this a sign of things to come:

Andrea Leadsom: “You cannot have the legal advice…Sorry, the legal advice is a national secret…you will have the legal advice tomorrow” (paraphrasing)


#2173

With today’s ECJ provisional ruling on the possibility of the unilateral withdrawal of the Article 50 notice and the Commons decision on the Attorney General’s letter together with Dominic Greaves’ amendment that, if passed, would permit the House to instruct the government against falling back on a hard Brexit in the inevitable event of the May deal being voted down, it is clear that the Brextremists’ are being out-manoeuvred and are on the run.

The choice will be between a second referendum (now the Brextremists’ best hope) or possibly a Norway-style agreement that would maintain free movement of labour. Personally, I would accept a Norway outcome as second best to Remain.

Given May’s obsession with immigration it is hard to see how see could continue in this scenario. It is clear to me that such is May’s record with

  • Windrush,
  • “go home” vans
  • refusal to exempt overseas students from immigration stats
  • exhorbitent fees to register as a British subject for longstanding residents
  • £30K minimum qualifying income for would be migrants
  • harsh and impossible immigration targets
  • unfair deportations for dual nationals

…that she is very much tied in to the right wing xenophobic agenda.

It is hard to see that she could support a Brexit resolution that would maintain free movement for labour even though it is already perfectly possible to exclude migrants from benefits and free use of the health service under EU rules.

If she stood down the Tories would then have to find a leader who would manage the process to choose between a second referendum and a Norway agreement. This would not be an easy task.

With the divide between the elderly members of the Conservative Party and the mainly Pro-EU MPs it is hard to see how they could move forward. If they went for an election, given the shambles that has been the May government (10 resignations and counting) and the drift to Remain, it is hard to see that they could win a majority.

Oh what a lovely mess!

Cheers,

Frog in a tree

P.s. It has been announced that Farage has resigned from UKIP. It would seem that it has become too far right even for him. UKIP will swiftly go down the pan. Happy days!


#2174

It’s not really a mess. Media love it. MPs get a few more ‘late’ nights on taxpayers expense.
Everyone else a bit bored of it. Not as if Parliament had much else to do is it?

Anyone with a few brain cells can see what’s coming… after Parliament has dicked around for a few more weeks then there will be a consensus of MPs for a #BrexitRef2 set for the Summer.
The Leave EU teams will bring out again there tired old EDL/BNP posters about immigrants and Muslims… and about “the Elite”.
This time round though… more people are aware they will be worse off outside the EU… and many of the previous Leave EU supporters are now pushing up the daisies.

Bring it on.


#2175

JW, it may pan out as you suggest. I still think that it is worth considering what will happen to the Conservative Party if May falls on her sword.

All good fun

At least the Brextremists seem to be in full panic mode and on the run…

Frog in a tree


#2176

Frankly, my dear, I don’t give a damn.


#2177

#2178

The ERG dream of a ‘No’ deal Brexit has taken a setback by the approval of Dom Grieves amendment…but equally it could make the Brexiteer MP’s back TM’s deal rather then get a Norway deal or (god forbid) ‘No Brexit’.


#2179

That’s clearly a risk Oili.

However, those who might have voted for May’s deal as preferable to a “no deal” might be emboldened to support a Peoples’ Vote or a Norway deal instead.

If I was an MP I would vote against May’s deal because there are no long term guarantees as to the final destination.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#2180

Pete …Still can’t believe your posting with your credibility shot to pieces :wink:

Uncle Dougs option of a 2nd ref won’t gain too much traction in the real world.

Happy to see the in fighting and final push to overturn democracy, Politics will never recovery if they wrong the people .


#2181

'‘Uncle Dougs option of a 2nd ref won’t gain too much traction in the real world.
Happy to see the in fighting and final push to overturn democracy, Politics will never recovery if they wrong the people .’

You post usually best words on here by a long way BM1. Democracy has to see Brexit through but, that said, the ensuing result of Brexit cannot yet be seen. It will then be in democratic terms, that further referenda will need to be played out to get the correct position for the UK.


#2182

So, what form of Brexit do you see as being achievable kaka?

Frog


#2183

‘‘So, what form of Brexit do you see as being achievable kaka?’’

We have to come out of the EU and start again. Whether the model to be decided by referenda, that is the course that has been agreed with the people.