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Brexit Wars 3

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lse:lloy
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#2289

government inflated GDP with higher debt is the rescue?


#2290

The EU has done what it has to do: protect its citizens. Brexiteers are now getting huffy about the EU because it didn’t behave as they expected regarding all the nonsense promises about “taking the cake” and “easiest deal ever” in their dreams. Instead of blaming those that were advertising such nonsense it’s now the EU that misbehaved? Your world is upside-down.

The EU was bullied by british tabloids and part of their politicians for decades and still offered special conditions no other member had and now your’re getting sore because it doesn’t simply tick off all the items on your wishlist?

What’s all that complaining now? I thought sportsmanship is a British quality? Brexiteers played high and lost. Their hand was not as good as they thought. It’s a game you wanted to play, not the EU.


#2292

Agreed , They did and always have done whats best for the United States of Europe.
I’ve no bitterness towards the EU , Just don’t want to be part of the club, Think we will do better outside without the restrictions of membership.

Roll on the 29th


#2293

Beggars cannot be choosers (we will be the beggars btw…IMO). There is also our ‘vision’ to re-gain our Empire…through trade rather than colonialism. Also India are a fairly big economy and growing at an enviable rate. So India would be high up on the list of must-have trade deals…but at what cost (I would also say the same about any Trump deal…at what cost!) :face_with_raised_eyebrow:


#2295

Our stubborn & increasingly ineffective PM today again dismisses even the option of a 2nd Vote stating the usual, “the reasons are very simple” followed by the same selective garbage to justify herself. Hmmm. IMO, May has looked wholly inadequate to the task ahead for some time now. Perhaps our best hope really is that she’s ousted soon as what she continues to present to the nation is little more than threats. No compromise; it’s my way or else further chaos. Even though the majority on both sides patently show little support for Chequers.

Strong leadership? Or an increasingly beleaguered & deluded PM, if not one unfit for office, who seems more concerned with her own political survival? - GLA.


#2296

The fear about migrant workers was largely overblown. Germany for example negotiated a longer transitions period before people from the new eastern states (Romania, Bulgaria) are allowed to freely move there. They expected 380,000 migrants in the first year, but only 79,000 came.

Now there are 900,000 poles in Germany and it’s a non issue. The unemployment rate is higher than average at 9%, but probably the net contribution to social insurance and taxes of that group is still net positive. Romanians are at 9% too. Bulgarians are problematic, because they often work in low-wage sectors and receive additional welfare .

So, problems exist, but overall it’s ok. The health sector will have a dramatic undersupply of nurses in the future and the migrant workers provide some relief, but for how long? The unemployment rate in august in Poland was at 3.4%, the same as in Germany. When the wages rise in such countries, they might feel less motivated to work abroad.

Germany is already trying to attract nurses from Asia like Vietnam and the Philippines. In the Philippines nursing care is a subject of study with more graduates than jobs. Germany provides 6 month courses to make them fit to work in a german hospital. win-win.


#2297

Stubborn Jack ? For a PM to stick to what was agreed (ie: Once in a Lifetime Choice) is refreshing imho.

2015 : Prime Minister David Cameron clearly set out that there would be no second referendum if the UK voted to leave.
“It will be your decision whether to remain in the EU on the basis of the reforms we secure, or whether we leave.

“Your decision. Nobody else’s. Not politicians’, not Parliament’s. Not lobby groups’. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people, will decide.

“At that moment, you will hold this country’s destiny in your hands. This is a huge decision for our country, perhaps the biggest we will make in our lifetimes. And it will be the final decision.

“So to those who suggest that a decision in the referendum to leave would merely produce another stronger renegotiation and then a second referendum in which Britain would stay, I say think again.
The renegotiation is happening right now. And the referendum that follows will be a once in a generation choice. An in or out referendum.

“When the British people speak, their voice will be respected, not ignored. If we vote to leave, then we will leave. There will not be another renegotiation and another referendum.”


#2298

No. The net payments after subtracting the money that is returned in form of subsidies and infrastructure projects was merely 12,5bln Euro in 2014 and even less in 2016 (6.3bln Euro). Does that even cover the declining GDP and taxes?


#2299

Splitting hairs…Will we be better off or Not to Leave on WTO rules ? Answer Yes to the tune of £39bn


#2300

Hi Jack,

To be fair, May has faced an impossible task. Could anyone have been a Tory Prime Minister with a party that is split top to bottom over our membership of the EU and our place in the world? She is, of course, the personification of this split with her evident antipathy to freedom of movement for EU workers and her Windrush tendencies, and her understanding that the harder the Brexit the more severe will be the damage to our economy. What she has done through subterfuge, and the sidelining of ministers like Davis, is to try and construct a deal which satisfies both the economic concerns of the Remainers and the migration concerns of the Leavers. Of course, as we see, positions are so fixed that there is great resistance to compromise and it looks like we are in deadlock.

Normally in such circumstances the goverment would fall and an election would be called. Several problems with this. The outcome of an election would most likely be a new parliament still in deadlock. May’s best hope is that fear of an election will be enough to garner support for her deal. We shall see.

There is some merit in the view that we have had one referendum and that to overturn the result would be a betrayal. If parliament plunges us into a Brexit that they know would be damaging to the nation’s prosperity that would, surely, also be a betrayal. Which is worse?

I can see no other alternative but to put the options of nodeal/May’s deal/Remain to another referendum. At least then the people will decide. If they choose to make themselves poorer then so be it. If the young don’t go out and vote and don’t like the result then that’s OK too. If the people vote to Remain then that would be the democratic decision. They have the right to change their mind and at least the people can’t betray themselves.

Brong forward the People’s Vote to settle it now.

Frog in a tree


#2301

Hi BM,

Little refreshing I can see about a PM who relies on a line that’s tantamount to more lies & platitudes about what the British people thought they voted for some 2 & 1/2 years ago, mostly spun from attempts at political self-preservation.

As you know, what was voted on was largely a crock of misinformation & unfulfillable promises that pandered to flag-waving illusions of greater sovereignty. That illusion is only fit for flushing down the toilet. UK will in future have to negotiate on bended knee with far more powerful economies. That’s reality.

Cameron said many things not worth the paper it was printed on, including that he was going nowhere even if Remain lost. Another political lightweight upstart who would never have got near office during Thatcher’s time. - Regards.


#2302

May needs to hurry up and do another dodgy deal with Brexiters before this breaks.
Democracy??

Vote Leave’s Facebook adverts reached tens of millions of people
Given the scale of the online advertising achieved with the excess spending, combined with conservative estimates on voter modelling, I estimate that Vote Leave converted the voting intentions of over 800,000 voters in the final days of the campaign as a result of the overspend.”

They were afraid 72mill Turks would be at the doctors and NHS…

Turkey (population 76 million) is joining the EU’ – Vote Leave publicity

Though Turkey has been an official EU candidate state since 1999, talks have long stalled and there is no prospect of the country joining the bloc anytime soon.
The European Parliament officially voted in favour of suspending negotiations just months after the EU referendum, on the basis of human rights abuses – while the European Council has said it will open talks in no new areas.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has also since said Turkey will never become an EU member, effectively blocking any accession. Turkish President Erdogan’s constitutional referendum has effectively sealed the deal.


#2303

You don’t get it? The 39bln include a lot of money they is coming back to the UK. The net effect will be much less than 39bln

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8039

Quote:

The agreement reached on the settlement means that the UK will:

contribute to and participate in the 2019 and 2020 EU budgets, as part of the transition (or implementation) period;

continue to receive EU funding from EU programmes that are part of the 2014 – 2020 budget plan;

contribute towards the EU’s outstanding budget commitments at 31 December 2020 (these are budget commitments that have been made, but not yet paid);

contribute towards some of the EU’s liabilities – obligations to pay for certain items – incurred before 31 December 2020. EU staff pensions are the main source of such liabilities;

remain liable for the EU’s contingent liabilities – potential liabilities that may occur depending on the outcome of an uncertain event – which relate mainly to financial guarantees given and to legal risks;

receive back the €3.5 billion of capital it has paid into the European Investment Bank in 12 instalments from 2019, and will receive back the relatively small amount of capital it paid into the ECB on withdrawal;

remain liable for EIB liabilities approved before the WA comes into force, and will provide a guarantee to the EIB for its stock of outstanding loans which will decrease as EIB loans associated with it decrease;

continue to participate in some of EU’s overseas programmes, such as the European Development Fund, until the current round ends.

#2304

Arsanias…Oh i get it alright, I did owe you £39bn regardless of what rebate i get, And i’m going to tell you to go scrub for it…I’ve now got £39bn in my skyrocket and you have a headache .

Not hard is it ? WTO and move on.


#2305

Belittle Cameron all you want Jack, But with respect you Voted to Leave the EU and have now changed your mind…That’s probably got more to do with your current financial position imho than what the Daily Express posted…Syria joining the EU ? Give us a little credit pls.


#2306

No, you don’t. In that case I expect the EU to cancel its payments to the UK: farmers subsidies, infrastructure projects, pensions of british EU staff, research cooperations,… and I hope the EU will block the €3.5bln British capital in the European Investment.

Your government will have to replace such payments or explain to the recipients why they are now worse off.

so, no 39bln… Something significantly less minus the shrinking GDP and taxes. The effect could well be negative in total.

be honest to yourself


#2307

Oili

Can only talk about engineering and manufacturing…
When student loans started schools uni etc encouraged many to go for ? degrees. So starved industry of apprentices. Years later as people retired we used first class EU engineers and trades to fill the gap.

IF we lose the EU men now we will not only have a shortage skills but shortage of people to train and at a time where industry will be trying to compete on a world stage…
It takes 10 years + to get a trained engineer / Tradesman

So getting our Act together will be very very hard even if we had a gov that cared…


#2308

Hes not good at maths…


#2309

Hi BM,

Thanks. It’s a fair point. But my view of Cameron was always consistent. In 2015 I voted for Ed Miliband for a few reasons & without hesitation.

I’d be untruthful to deny that I have no concerns about Brexit’s adverse effect, as repeatedly forecast by those far more knowledgeable than me, on UKs longer-term prosperity, or by association on my own financial affairs. Who wouldn’t be, bar perhaps the wealthy or those with little stake in the economy?

From what I’ve seen so far, this entire process gives the UK nothing of added value, but plenty potential deficits. Even professed greater migration control is another worthless illusion. There’ll be less EU citizens coming here, but an inevitable large increase of migrants from other parts of the world. Little meaningful will change, bar that we may all be poorer for longer. Hence why a 2nd vote based on greater information seems as logical as it is more democratic.

As you also know from my previous comments, I & many others voted with huge reservations. I almost abstained. Nothing was ever clear-cut for many of those who bothered voting in 2016, so complex were the ramifications & variables of Brexit. - Regards.


#2310

A repetition of a falsehood. Don’t believe him.

“When you leave a club you pay the bar bill” (Geoffrey Cox, UK Attorney General)