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Brexit Wars 3

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lse:lloy
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#24298

It looks like cabinet minister Cairns cannot survive this rape case scandal. Surely he will have to resign and stand down from the election. It will surely damage the Tories’s campaign in Wales. On top of JRM’ bloody stupid comments about Grenfell it looks like the skids are under the early stage Tory election campaign.

Frog in a tree


#24299

That Conservative campaign so far:

Hiding reports into possible Russian election interference.
Saying that the 72 victims of the Grenfell victims lacked “common sense,.”
Lying about the sabotage of a rape case.

It’s only Tuesday.
It’s only Tuesday.


#24300

"Campaigning in the general election will officially begin later, after Parliament was dissolved in the early hours of Wednesday morning. "


#24301

RRW - good morning

I guess, like me, you’re not an avid or regular reader of that liberal elitist rag The Guardian!
However, I saw on the news summary I get on my mobile a great sketch article from the aforementioned rag that is brilliant.
Maybe the EU Groupies have already read it … but just in case they haven’t -

It might even give a ray of humour to brighten up the day of the miserable remainers that infest this BB. But then again … I’m not holding my breath because IDGAS.
JAR


#24302

Cuts no ice with me: I’m pro - Iranian. Especially when Iran is being bullied by the USA which wants to steal its oil or threatened by Saudi Arabia’s utterly oppressive, corrupt and murderous regime. The latter currently being responsible for the deaths and starvation of 100,000s of children in Yemen.

You may not know but all 19 of the plane hijackers of 9/11 were Saudis and that is where their funding came from, via Bin Laden. The regime has its fingers in many unsavoury pies.

IMHO,

SBK


#24303

John,

I’m one of those who does indeed read both The Guardian & The Independent. Mostly for their greater objectivity & that I really can’t be bothered to subscribe to The Times or DT. I’ve previously read that article on Swinson &, frankly, found the gist of it hard to disagree with. That said, I very much hope the LibDems do well in Tory marginals, which I honestly think they may well do. Should certainly increase their seats by more than a few.

So there you have it. No Groupthink going on here for all your insinuations to the contrary. :wink: - Regards.


#24304

Good to seeing Mr Cleverley getting a grilling on the BBC this morning about the accident strewn start to the Tory election campaign. It would have been quite amusing except that it was excruciating for the luckless Cleverley. Long may the Tories continue in this vein !

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#24305

JD - hi

I didn’t say ‘the miserable remainers that infest this BB’ was 100% m8.
Got to be a sizeable majority though!
ATB
JAR
:innocent:


#24306

Toe curling, wasn’t it? Poor guy was put out to the slaughter. Looks like Reees-Moooog has been thrown under the bus already as well.

So far, on the big launch day for the Tories, they tried to grab the news cycle with an attack on Corbyn for demonising certain billionaires that support the tories and wanting to tax them. There point being that if he does that ALL billionaires will be caught in the same unfair tax!

I wonder how many votes they think that will win them? I honestly expected Cummings to be running a much slicker campaign than this, all he’s tried so far has been parried effortlessly by Labour, having political ads removed from Facebook, blocking an attempt to use tax payers money for electioneering, stupidly banning a report from publication and thus implicating themselves in a cover up and several major names disgracing themselves in the opening salvos.

Smacks of hubris. This is all going to be a lot closer than people thought.


#24307

Hi JAR

Yes, seems reasonable.
I wonder though if he will actually be allowed to put it in to practice.
Opposition at home to his proposal.

His hand partly forced due to the Far Right, as suggested in the article.

Interesting to see how it pans out.

ATB

soi


#24308

Thicko Cleverely:

Hilarious!

IMHO,

SBK


#24309

Nice one Kay. Haven’t seen her for years - she seems well on form.

Talk about a sitting target though. Ho Ho Ho. Xmas elections.


#24310

Macron is pandering to the Far Right indeed. He has also been dropped from my Christmas card list since he gave up on resisting Brexit. I have written to him to try and instil some backbone in him.

Regarding the French and immigration, it is the same thing as with Britain and its former Empire. But more so with France which still has many de facto colonies and which are part of “Greater France” and a boon to the mother country’s economy. Many French have forgotten these links and such events as the Algerian War. Recent Islamist terrorist attacks have, alas, fuelled anti - Muslim sentiment in particular.

Intelligent people take a wider and long term view. Whilst discussing the two World Wars with a French friend recently she said of France’s Muslim military contingents: “They were all French then”.

IMHO,

SBK


#24311

O/T

Stupid firework night.

I must have heard a £ Million or maybe even £2M going up in smoke with big bangs last night. In fact its been going on for days. For 2 hours last evening it was like the Battle of the Somme.

And what for other than to terrorize peoples’ pets?

Mind you I suppose that is what it will sound like when the Remainer armies finally corner the remnants of the Brexit forces in their Bingo halls and Seafront shelters, pounding them with Howitzers and Helicopter gunship rockets. Now that would be a pleasurable noise.

IMHO,

SBK


#24312

Breaking News

Alun Cairnes has resigned as Secretary of State for Wales. Another one bites the dust!

Frog in a tree


#24313

Can only agree. I enjoyed it as a kid of course but that was because we launched rockets at a local school trying to set the roof on fire but sadly it never worked.

I’ve no idea why this stupid tradition carries on. At least now we don’t get the multiple casualties and fires we did in the 70s but it really is a total waste of time.
It also disturbed all the animals at my Shelter so had to be there all evening.


#24314

Regarding the Muslim soldiers who fought in Europe in WW1, here is a Commonwealth War Grave cemetery in Montrueil Sur Mer where lie some Indian soldiers who fell. There are Hindus, Sikhs as well as Muslims.

I took the photo in 2018.

Frog in a tree


#24315

Correction: yet another sleazy, lying Tory Minister is forced to resign.

IMHO,

SBK


#24316

Still plenty of casualties:

Of course I can understand people who want to watch pretty sparkly things in the sky but most of the ones people buy just make enormous bangs which last for 1 or 2 seconds . It would be far cheaper just to pop a balloon next to your ear-hole.

Next time: why Christmas should be banned.

IMHO,

SBK


#24317

Summary of polling in Wales and London

At the weekend we had a positive glut of national polls. In the last couple of days they’ve been joined by London and Wales polls from YouGov.
The Welsh poll for ITV Wales has Westminster voting intentions of CON 28%(-1), LAB 29%(+4), LDEM 12%(-4), BREX 15%(+1), Plaid 12%(nc). Changes are since mid-October, and show Labour retaking the lead over the Conservatives in Wales. While recent movement is in Labour’s favour, compared to the result at the 2017 general election these would be terrible figures for Labour. Compared to the shares of the vote in the 2017 general election in Wales the Conservatives are down six points, Labour are down twenty(!) points, the Liberal Democrats up seven, Plaid up two. So while the Tories are losing support, the slump in Labour support would likely result in many Labour seats falling to the Tories. As ever, Roger Awan-Scully has more in depth analysis here.
The YouGov London poll for Queen Mary University London shows similar dynamics in the capital. Current vote shares are CON 29%, LAB 39%, LDEM 19%, BREX 6%. Compared to the 2017 general election results in London that represents a drop of four points for the Conservatives, a drop of sixteen for Labour, an increase of ten for the Liberal Democrats. While the Conservatives are losing support, the large scale movement of voters from Labour to the Liberal Democrats may well win them a significant number of seats. It is a reminder that while people have been looking towards the more “leave-inclined” Labour seats in the North and Midlands for potential Tory gains, it is perfectly possible for them to win in more remain-inclined seats where they are losing support, so long as Labour are losing more support.
How it actually translates in terms of seats is difficult to know (especially in a city as politically diverse as London, where the dynamics of the race may be radically different in the inner-city seats, the leafy Lib Dem-Con marginals of South-West London and the more typical Con-Lab marginals in North London). Over the last few days we’ve also seen a drip-drip of constituency polls by Survation, primarily conducted for the Liberal Democrat party. So far they have published polls for South East Cambridgeshire (showing an 11 point Tory lead, a Con>LD swing of 11.5%), North East Somerset(a 16 point Tory lead, a Con>LD swing of 15%), Portsmouth South(a 3 point Lib Dem lead, a Lab>LD swing of 15%) and Cambridge (a 9 point Lib Dem lead, a Lab>LD swing of 16%). Obviously they all show the Lib Dems doing well, but I would urge some caution in their interpretation, as I would with any political party commissioned polls. It is impossible to know how many constituency opinion polls the Liberal Democrats have commissioned, so it’s perfectly possible that they have commissioned another ten, twenty, thirty constituency polls in seats where they weren’t doing quite so well, and choose never to publish them. We’re probably only seeing the constituency polls that the Lib Dems want us to see.
Finally, while I am not going to update with every individual national poll – the best way of looking at voting intention polls will always be to look at the broad trend – I’ll just update with those we’ve seen since my last post.
There is a new ICM poll for Reuters, the first of a regular series for the election campaign. Topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 31%, LDEM 15%, BREX 9%, GRN 3%. Fieldwork was over the weekend. It’s been almost a month since the last ICM poll (their regular voting intention polls seemed to peter out somewhat after Martin Boon left to set up Deltapoll), so changes since their last poll aren’t really relevant. This poll got some attention from the single digit Labour lead, though given the paucity of ICM polling in the last year we can’t really tell if that’s movement, or just ICM’s methodology.
Secondly there was a new YouGov poll for the Times. Topline figures were CON 38%(-1), LAB 25%(-2), LDEM 16%(nc), BREX 11%(+4), GRN 5%(+1). Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are from last Thurs-Fri. The YouGov/Sunday Times poll at the weekend had some sharp movements: a six point increase for Labour, a six point drop for the Brexit party. Today’s poll partially reverses those changes, suggesting it was probably something of an outlier… though that means Labour are still four points up on the YouGov/Times poll last week.

from PollingUnpacked

Frog in a tree