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Brexit Wars 3

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#4180

Problem is now that nurses have to pay for their training which results in a lot of debt. Hard to pay off if you are in such a relatively low paid employment. That is why there has been a fall off in British nurses being trained and the need to recruit from overseas. Simple.

IMHO,

SBK


#4183

You are funny O you tell me that the Uk will be affected by Germany Italy and France going into recession and then pretend the rest of the 27 will be unaffected :joy:


#4185

Let’s hope @Grumpy_Grandad has had a good Round this morning with no slicing or hooking… it’s Friday and end of week… surely he’s not going to go off ranting again?


#4189

Quite right SBUK,

The decision to abolish nursing bursaries was one of the most brainless taken by the Tory administration. As you said SBUK, nursing is a modestly paid vocation and repaying student grants from wages at that level will be impoverishing. The figures are showing that intakes of student nurses in 2017 and 2018 took a hit which was ascribed to the imposition of student loans.

This idiotic decision was taken in the context of very high levels of turnover caused by austerity repressed wages and heavy workloads which have led to nurses dropping out of the profession at increasing rates. At the risk of upsetting our Brexiter friends (who mostly exist in a fact-free world) I should just add that the xenophobic atmosphere ushered in by Brexit has made working in the UK less attractive than it used to be for migrant health workers from the EU and beyond which has exacerbated the rates of turnover.

Again, if we are to assume that employment rates will hold up at current levels despite Brexit then there is something of a demographic squeeze as our population ages and demands for health and care services increases. With unemployment at around 5% the pool of unemployed is likely to be fairly low skilled, poorly motivated and poorly educated. 5% unemployment is reckonned to be full employment when you allow for the unemployable and the necessary fluidity to allow for labour mobility between jobs. It seems to me that there is not a vast latent pool of people trainable to work in professional roles in the health service.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#4191

I met a young (~30) IT guy in London who decided to leave. He said: “I rent a flat from an old fart and 40% of my Council Tax is spent to wipe his a***. And only 8% goes to schools - this country is screwed up beyond repair; especially when you are a young emigrant with family”.

And there were another leaving drinks in the City - relocation to Geneva this time.


#4192

Again, I can only commend the Daily Telegraph for its discretion in self-censoring its biased output. Thanks GG! As for the EU encouraging or enabling JLR to move part of its operation to Slovakia, I haven’t seen any evidence of this. When we exist is a capitalist world the only way to protect against this is to do things better and or cheaper. With the UK’s low productivity we are not perhaps as competitive as we could be even with our Brexit devalued sterling.

As for what will happen after Brexit, it seems to me that the UK will be even more exposed especially under a tariff regime that is ushered in with any hard Brexit. Additionally, we will have no influence over EU policy and I suspect that we will have no sympathy from them either. If manufacturing for export within a free-trade EU is more profitable then we can only expect that some companies will relocate to where they can benefit from frictionless trade and higher profit margins.

Frog in a tree


#4193

I never said that. I said: “be assured that if those countries go into recession, the UK will too.”

That’s common sense, because a world economic climate which pushes the EU into recession is the same for the UK. The UK cannot decouple.

Right now that’s theory, because there is no recession forecast for 2019. Several brexiteers here made that claim without providing numbers and sources.

That’s what you said: “Anyway O they are in recession and we continue to grow your predictions so far are unfounded”

So please provide me with your source showing that the EU is in a recession. Otherwise don’t make any unfounded claims.


#4194

This from Bloom**** 10thJanuary…
Headline Can Britain Measure Up Without the EU?
Leavers promise renewed British grandeur, but the harsh reality of Brexit may leave it diminished. …

Potential Free-Trade Agreements for an Independent U.K.
As a percentage of the value of European Union membership

BOTTOM LINE - Britain’s imperial glory still looms large in the popular imagination, but the realities of a post-Brexit world are unlikely to live up to it.


#4195

Maybe… My business was growing quick needed electronic guys who could fix instruments deal with customers none were in the local area. Training guys like that c 15years. 2 Polish guys turned us round Adam is still in company and service manager…

Cant think of many industries who would be able to bring in many migrants to undercut wages certainly not If there were unions. Only Farming where they needed people able and willing to work long hours outside picking fruit and veg on bonus basis… Is that the kind of work we want for our young??
The Tories helped lower wages with Min wage cuts and zero hours. still blame migrants…


#4198

Its. A. Forecast

Do you understand the nature of forecasts? They are based on the best available factual data at the time. The facts have changed. All the economic data coming out of the EU since then has been beyond dire. If those same forecasters met today to recalculate it would be much lower.


#4199

Its normal to supply some links to the data used on forcasts, otherwise ppl might think you are just making things up to prove a point.??


#4200

I understand the nature of forecasts, but it was published at the end of the quarter. It is still more and better than what you are offering: nothing.

you said: “Q4 is going to be a lot worse than Q3”

So, what is your underlying data? Anything better than a forecast? Whishful thinking perhaps?


#4202

Well, obviously, like the rest of your remainer friends here you have selective vision. No doubt you han your fingers in your ears and your eyes closed when this news was released:

  • German industrial production fell by 1.7% in November (third month in a row of falls) and posted its worst year-on-year drop since the end of the financial crisis (note these are hard numbers, not soft data) – this week
  • Euro-area economic confidence fell for a 12th month in a row in December, its worst streak since the depths of the financial crisis – this week
  • Growth in Germany’s manufacturing sector slowed again in December as new orders fell at the fastest rate in four years. Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of the economy, fell to a 33-month low of 51.5 from 51.8 in November, edging closer to the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction – 2nd January
  • The IHS Markit France Composite PMI fell markedly to 48.7 in December of 2018 from 54.2 in the previous month and below preliminary estimates of 49.3, final estimates showed. The reading pointed to the first contraction in private activity since June of 2016 – 2nd January
  • Italian PMI was 49.2 for December, still a recession reading – 2nd January
  • Eurozone PMI continuing to fall (source - trading economics)

I don’t know what other evidence you want. In no universe is your assertion that “Q4 GDP is likely to be better than Q3” true, not even in the remainer EU unicorns and ponies fantasy world.


#4203

So @HuwJarse… still waiting for you to post your reasons why you think the UK will be better off outside the EU than as a member. You mentioned you;d posted why many times… couldn’t find any though.
From your posts… it seems to hinge on EU states not doing well… thus it isn’t good for the UK to be in the EU either.
You also didn’t explain to me how the Services industry and in particular the Financial Services industry will be advantaged by Leaving the EU… interested to hear that seeing as it forms the bulk of UK GDP.
Whilst I’m at it… I’m guessing you support No Deal and was wondering whether you agreed or not that there would need to be a hard border between NI and the ROI… I know RRW had the great idea that all freight between UK and EU states would use bonded warehouses but I’m really not sure if that will work… what do you think?


#4205

J_Westlock,

I am in a agreement with Economists for Free Trade. Why don’t you try reading some of their publications. I am in favour of no deal. As for the Ireland border question, there will only be a hard border if the EU decides it needs to impose one. If it does, so be it.


#4206

fine, finally some data, but why do you think the authors of the forecast I posted didn’t use these data? Published december 21st.


#4208

That gives us a “good belly laugh”. No deal is not free trade. It’s pretty much the opposite, because only deals remove customs and tariffs.


#4210

Because the numbers hadn’t been published before your forecast was made ergo they could not have been factored in to the numbers.


#4214

So, there we have it. Jarse supports the cavemen of the EFFT!

A bunch of antediluvian clowns who deny Climate change and seek to sell the UK down the river to right wing American Billionaires.

The big brain in it is that crank Minford who is stuck in Cardiff because he can’t get a job at a good University.

Then of course there is, amongst other sundry weirdos and buffoons, the execrable Mogg. He’s as thick as a plank but peeps seem to warm to him because of his old fashioned manner. But he’s actually extremely dangerous beyond his stupid economic opinions. This is a man who believes (according to his extreme Catholicism) that a raped 14 year old girl or one made pregnant by forced incest should be made to carry a resultant child to birth. Destroying the girl’s life and at usually great cost to the state and society as such a child would usually end up unhappily in care. An utterly despicable character.

IMHO,

SBK


#4216

Some interesting Open Petitions … if anyone interested ?

Parliamentary petitions