Brexit Wars 3



Third q Germany minus 0.4 gdp uk plus 0.6
Italy minus 0.2 do some research


Well RRW,

I did research as you suggested. The current situation with UK GDP is:

"Manufacturing output fell for a fifth straight month in November, helping to drag the rate of GDP growth down to just 0.3 per cent.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the sector contracted by 0.3 per cent in the month, with poor performances by the car industry and pharmaceuticals highlighted.

Construction grew by 0.6 per cent and services by 0.3 per cent in the month, strengthening slightly from October.

However, the quarterly rate of GDP growth fell to 0.3 per cent, the weakest in six months.

Analysts expect overall growth in the final quarter of 2018 to collapse to 0.2 per cent or 0.1 per cent, down from the 0.6 per cent expansion recorded in the third quarter."

As we discussed before, the third quarter benefited from good summer weather and a bounce back from Beast from the East disruption.

All the above is while we still benefit from EU membership. The hit to GDP under any form of Brexit will be very damaging according to Treasury estimates.

Try to keep up!


Frog in a tree


Growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2018, according to preliminary data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 9 November. Quarter-on-quarter growth came in at 0.6%, up from 0.4% in Q2 and matching market expectations. In annual terms, the economy grew 1.5% in the third quarter, up from Q2’s 1.2% increase

Guess it depends on what you read ?


Again Fynne,

You too are behind the curve. I have explained why the third quarter achieved 0.6% growth. The economy did not freeze at the end of September and since then there has been a fall back.

Try to keep up to date!



I don’t believe @red_rose_wizz gave a reason for it being 0.6% … just that it was 0.6%?


That is true Fynne, it was me that added the explanation.



Well I see that Mrs May is touring Stoke this morning. Obviously she is going to highlight how the Conservative Government has transformed this once economically and socially depressed City into a shining example of a thriving metropolis over the past 8 years.

On the other hand maybe she has gone there to score some monkey dust to pass around the table during the next meeting of her zombie Cabinet?




JW, you didn’t quite say that did you…you wrote: “we won’t hear anything of any note until sometime between 21st-28th Jan”

If the ‘meaningful vote’ does take place tomorrow and it is voted down then TM has 3 days (presumably working days) to come up with plan ‘B’…but she could immediately come up with her plan ‘B’ directly after the ‘downvote’. So there could well hear something of note before 21st Jan (although 21st Jan at the latest).


No… I didn’t quite say that but the dates will be correct I think you’ll find. You’re right that May could come straight back within minutes directly after a downvote… and irrespective of the vote then they could make a statement saying “agreement on the Deal isn’t possible and so we now will…” at any point… even today.
In all reality though… their plan is still to play for time… so they will delay and use up all the time they possibly can in the hope that some MPs will switch to support the May Deal.


I have a feeling that in the last moment she would rather revoke article 50 than go into hard brexit. Sure, she cannot hint on that, because then she would never get the remainers votes.

The other option is to negotiate an extension with the EU, but for what? The EU will not agree to another deal and I don’t think she will get a majority just by giving the MPs more time to contemplate.


OK lets have a sweepstake on what she does. My personal prediction is she immediately declares for a no deal. Any other path crosses all her red lines and she’s toast. She has nothing left to lose.


Yes… interesting @arsanias… all possible.
I can’t see her sticking around for long after the downvote… whenever it happens. At the point she realises her Deal is 100% dead… I expect she will resign… but that don’t mean there’ll be a GE. A new Tory PM could then take the opportunity to either push straight down the No Deal route (which would not gain sufficient support among MPs but they could play for time to see it happen)… or try and gain support for a different type of deal… or even #BrexitRef2.
We’ll see over next few weeks as for sure, there’s a lot of cross-Party talking going on.


Wishful thinking Huw…

…if she declared a no deal she is toast and there would be an almighty fight in the Tory party possibly leading to resignations of the whip and disaster at the next General Election.

Theresa May is not quite that daft (?)

If she wants to achieve a soft Brexit then a People’s Vote is her best chance. Even if Remain were to win then she could declare it a democratic outcome and an expression of the People’s Will.


Frog in a tree


That’s a bet on whether she values more her credibility or her responsibility.


Quite. The past two and a half years have been about her and nothing else.




Are we talking about the same person? She clearly isn’t going to do that.


We can all agree on that


The previous conservative government in Spain wanted to protect the big energy producers and introduced a tax on self provided solar energy. That was pretty absurd and led to a very small number or solar installation and high energy prices in this sun-rich country.

Spain is now cancelling that tax, but it was also against an EU regulation that solar energy that is consumed in someone’s home cannot be subject to taxes or fees.

Just as a note to people who think the EU is generally anti competition and market.


Frog, let me ask you a very simple question. If the party of government, who called the referendum, pledged to honour it and who subsequently fought an election campaign on a pledge to implement Brexit, then decided to call for a second referendum, how do you think that would be viewed by 17.4 million leave voters? Given that 70% of Tories are leavers that would be tantamount to putting a shotgun in your mouth and pulling the trigger, electoral suicide. If she goes for No Deal and parliament steps in to take it out of her hands the government can at least say it tried to honour the result.


I guess if she scuppered a no deal brexit and instead went for a second referendum some of the 17 million might be disappointed but not those who have switched from Leave to Remain, or the majority of young voters or the deceased Leave voters.

There is now a 6% majority for Remain and a clear majority in favour of a second referendum. As for the Tory party itself, well that is a minor consideration when, in fact, they need support from Remainers if they are to form another government. The numbers are against them now that…

…Remain is the new majority.

Frog in a tree