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Brexit Wars 3

lse:hsba
lse:lloy
lse:barc

#4351

JW, Dominic Grieves amendment was designed to limit the governments delaying tactics (as much as possible). So - in theory - TM has 3 days after the ‘downvote’ of tomorrows vote to come up with plan ‘B’. So in this respect her ability to delay is limited to 21st Jan.

TM could of course pull tomorrows vote - unlikely IMO but I’m guessing that you still think it’s possible.

But if there is a vote tomorrow then things could happen very rapidly (IMO). Corbyn has to get his ‘No confidence’ vote out of the way ASAP IMO… otherwise extra delay could be caused by him.

BBC Brexit latest from Labour is that there will be a ‘No confidence’ vote if TM is defeated (I presume immediately).


#4353

Where is the contradiction? Unless you are sure that a second referendum means not Brexit at all… But then, if that is the new majority why not follow it? 17.4 million leave voters then doesn’t mean 17.4 million leave voters now.


#4354

That’s right, 1.4 million of the 17.4 are now pushing up daisies.

Due to a lack of imagination the Brexit supporters think that the world stopped on the 23rd June 12016.

IMHO,

SBK


#4355

From the BBC News website:

“Sterling will remain extremely sensitive to Brexit news over the next 48 hours,” according to Neil Wilson of markets.com.

He rather boldly plots a “likely course of action” after Tuesday’s vote on Theresa May’s plan:

  • The Prime Minister loses vote

  • A no confidence motion that passes as there are enough ultra-Remain Tory rebels prepared to risk a Labour government rather than let the UK leave without a deal

  • A general election is called

  • Brexit is delayed to allow time for the poll

  • Dependent on that outcome another referendum is called. If not a second referendum the hard Brexit camp is defeated and a much ‘softer’ format is agreed

There is more of this too. It seems that the markets are factoring in that Hard Brexit is dead.

As for a general election, this may well be the only way that the Tories can sort out their internal problems, but I doubt it. Surely in the current circumstances they cannot harden their stance on Brexit given current polling in favour of Remain? My guess is that we would end up with another hung parliament if we had another referendum which would be the best outcome, in my view, especially if the DUP were also to be damaged.

On this platform, LLOY looks like a reasonable bet if Hard Brexit is all but dead. BUY

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#4356

yes, +10% for LBG in a day and another 10% in the week + 10% appreciation of the Pound, which makes 30% for foreign investors.

Only the envisioned Castles+Whisky trip to Scotland will be more expensive.


#4357

Unsurprisingly you’re all completely missing the point. We are talking about a Tory prime minister having to decide upon an alternative course of action when her deal is inevitably defeated. You appear to believe she is going to completely overlook the strong preference of her own voter party’s voter base. Think about it. Whichever way she goes the Tories are going to split.


#4358

The average age of Tory party members is 72 and Tory voters also on the older side. The hard brexit facts is that the Leave majority has disappeared. We can see from the generational split over Brexit that they are on the wrong side of history. The urgent need in the Tory party is modernisation before they simply become an irrelevance. The predictions are that any form of Brexit will be damaging and if Brexit goes ahead and our economy suffers damage it will only be the Tories that are in the frame for the blame.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#4359

Yep… well I assume Labour can’t keep asking for a ‘No confidence’ in Government vote though; how many times could they do that within 2 1/2 months? (dunno myself).
If we assume they can do it twice in that period… indeed… one attempt might be after a downvote… and the next might be when it’s becoming clear we are heading for No Deal sometime in mid-March.
I’m not sure they will have enough support as yet to win a vote of No Confidence.

Given they haven’t today leaked any comments about potential for postponement… looks like vote will be happening tomorrow. I guess that she will simply head off back to EU after a downvote… come back with some more assurances and more flesh on the bone for the future relationship/Deal… then state on 21st that the Plan is to have a final vote on the Deal plus the new Assurances etc. the following week with the intention that voting it down will lead to a No Deal. Then when that is voted down too… then she will resign.


#4360

I gather that there has been a letter of reassurance from the EU that the backstop is not intended as a permanent solution. Of course, it wouldn’t need to be if we were formally in a customs union. The DUP has dismissed this as insufficient. It looks like she will go to the vote with her deal unamended.

Frog


#4361

We won’t know who is on the wrong side of history until the future unfolds.


#4362

Actually, Corbyn is to be blamed too. He could ask for another referendum. Just bring it to the parliament and his chances for a majority are bigger than Mays.

But he dislikes the EU for diametral reasons as the conservatives. He thinks it’s a neoliberal project to propel capitalism whereas Brexiteers blame the EU for being anti-competitive and over-regulated. They don’t get that they contradict each other and they are probably all wrong.

Corbyn wants to leave and then win the next elections. The EU would be out of the way when he wants to nationalize whatever parts of the economy or move towards a planned economy. An economy that falls off a cliff could even play into his hands, both in public sentiment as in companies that need help from the state. It’s interesting that Brexiteers don’t identify that as the bigger risk for a market economy.


#4363

I know all that. Labour will be damaged too, likely enough to hold them back from winning the next election because people like me will withhod support . I still reckon that the Tories will shoulder most of the blame. Frog


#4364

As Ive said before Monty Pythons.
Fox: Brexit will be better than an event where 3500 Brits died (Dunkirk)
Johnson: “I know more about cars than CEO of Jaguar Land Rover"
McVey: "there’ll be a transition period for no deal”

The Portmeirion pottery factory in Stoke-on-Trent was the scene of Mrs May’s last-ditch Brexit speech


#4365

British = untrustworthy :frowning:

“Recent data-sharing statistics show that families are providing data that has been re-purposed for immigration enforcement without their informed consent. We hope the Information Commissioner’s Office will put an end to this shameful and shocking practice.”


#4366

It was never compulsory for schools to provide the information and because of this as a governing body we instructed the Headteacher not to bother. We are not immigration officers and children should not be used for that purpose.

Frog in a tree


#4367

You are all willingly selling democracy for your one chance of victory.
What are the the limits where victory is won? … and democracy is lost.
The clock is ticking, and one day you may wake up to realise that your short term gain has long and lasting implications.
You often quote the effects on the next generation because of Brexit
Has anyone one of you considered the effects on democracy if the referendum is dismissed… do you even care?
“Sell your soul to the devil and may you rot in hell”


#4368

“What are the the limits where victory is won? … and democracy is lost?”

That’s rich!

We could ask the same question about the means by which the Leave campaigns won the referendum through dog whistle politics, lies about millions of Turks moving to the UK, £350 million per week for the NHS, misinformation about EU governance and law making, breaking the campaign funding regulations, stealing personal data to target misleading adverts at Facebook users and possible collusion with the Russians and so on…

Frog in a tree


#4369

The devil has given you a choice of victory in return for a life in hell … it’s a book (and a play etc) seems quite apt atm


#4370

Very florid language there Fynne…take care.

Frog


#4371

It was never compulsory, but it was sold to parents that is for DoE to check needs; especially to establish where majority did not have English as a mother tongue. It was one big sham and sadly organised by British government.