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Brexit Wars 3

lse:hsba
lse:lloy
lse:barc

#4372

Clearly a part of the hostile environment…


#4373

Thats all Brexiters have left threats and its not democracy… Democracy was lost when the powers that be allowed the Cheating LEAVE campaign to get away with a campaign to create fear and incite…It shames us all.

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#4374

How is having another vote not democracy?? especially since so many truths have been uncovered OR are you just saying “you would lose”


#4375

Clearly once people voted Leave, they became attached to leaving, if only because they want to be heard. Remainers can offer the plausible democratic argument for remaining: the referendum was advisory; May’s government spent two-and-a-half years monomaniacally pursuing Brexit, and negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the EU; but if both MPs and a second referendum reject the agreement, and there’s neither a parliamentary nor popular majority for no deal, then Brexiting would be undemocratic.

I think it will take decades to resolve, but, it starts with Remainers treating Leavers with respect.


#4376

…and vice versa!


#4377

@fynne When you voted to ‘take back control’… who did you think you were giving control back to? Did you think that the mob who voted to Leave would then be running the Government and calling all the shots?

Maybe you’ve forgotten being exiled out in Greece but in the UK we have a Parliamentary democracy where you get to vote for an MP in your constituency every few years.


#4378

Selective Frog for some reason you have missed out the growth in services biggest part of our economy
If you are going to do research do it properly
Uk in gdp growth overall Germany and Italy in recession


#4379

You need 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP numbers to be in recession. Both Germany and Italy only have one.

Maybe you should wait until 14/2/19 for the next figure.


#4380

RRW

I think the links I gave you covered the whole of the economy. If you have additional data please post them.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#4381

Hi

The following extract gives a view on sterling relative to the vote and expectations.
Source is reuters.

“Markets have priced in a rejection of May’s plan and there are many scenarios after that. Still I’d think the most likely outcome is to extend the (March. 29) deadline of Brexit,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.

Indeed, currency option markets are barely pricing in the chances of sharp moves in sterling.

The pound’s one-month implied volatility stood at 12.5 percent, above the average for the past year of around 8.8 percent well off 20-percent plus levels seen in the days just before the UK referendum on June 23, 2016.

The pound changed hands at $1.2897, up 0.2 percent, having hit a two-month high of $1.2930 on Monday after a report, subsequently denied, that a pro-Brexit faction of lawmakers could support May’s deal.

ATB

soi


#4382

Storm clouds darken as Europe and China falterIndustrial production in the single currency bloc was 1.7 per cent lower in November than it had been the previous month, sparking concerns of a slowdown on the Continent.In another sign of a gathering storm, exports by China slumped 4.4 per cent in December – their biggest decline in two years – amid a trade war with the US.
The figures from Europe and China came as the US government shutdown entered its 24th day, making it the longest ever period that federal agencies have been closed.
Global economic groups warned of a widespread slowdown which could harm Britain too. Stock markets around the world went into reverse as nervous investors digested the news. Uncertainty over Brexit is also plaguing the markets.
The eurozone grew by just 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of 2018, and it was hoped this would be followed by a recovery at the end of the year.
But the latest figures, from statistics office Eurostat suggest the situation has only got worse.
Bert Colijn, of Dutch bank ING, said: 'Fears of a technical recession in large eurozone economies are mounting as industrial production in November provided a harsh reality check for economists.
‘Surveys have been dismal throughout the quarter, and actual production data is now confirming that bleak view on the eurozone economy.’
The biggest fears are for Germany, whose economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the three months to September 2018.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe output fell 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter – meaning Germany is in recession.
Germany is the powerhouse of the single currency bloc, but is heavily reliant on exports by its manufacturers and therefore at risk if global trade falls.
Italy is also seen as highly exposed, with an economy which was flat with no growth in the third quarter.
The country’s treasury minister Giovanni Tria said he expects this stagnation to have lasted until the end of 2018.
Zero growth will pile pressure on Italy’s ruling anti-establishment parties to act, and could force them into a confrontation with Brussels over state spending rules.
A report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned that Germany is already in recession.


#4383
  1. £350 million per week for the NHS – a sticker on a bus = “a cast iron promise”. A leaflet produced by the government containing information produced by the Treasury, posted through every letterbox in the land and telling us we’d all be £4,300 a year worse off, in a -2.0% recession and 500,000 jobs to the bad (all complete lies) = a forecast that we can casually disregard for the purposes of this Frog rant.
  2. Breaking the campaign funding regulations:
    Total amounts spent in the referendum
    Remain - £19,070,566
    Leave - £13,436,241
  3. Possible collusion with the Russians:
    Proof to date – None
  4. Targeting of misleading adverts:
    I suppose a leaflet full of absolute scaremongering bull posted through every letterbox in the land does not count as a “targeted, misleading advert”

Pull the other one Frog and save your faux outrage.


#4384

Again it may be a case of “buy the news, sell the fact” Anything that means that Theresa May is close to going will be viewed as positive. I’m pretty sure a Corbyn Government is not priced in. Most likely scenario is an extension of Article 50 - but will the EU only grant that with conditions (GE or Referendum)?

I still think we may get a final push up in the S&P (maybe as high as 2700) before sellers step in


#4385

I wish I could be a Senior Strategist for an Investment bank. You get paid for stating the bleeding obvious. In fact I think my labradoodle could do it - the cocker spaniel is over qualified.


#4387

Oh dear, it doesn’t fit the “Europe is great and is doing Soooooo much better than the UK” narrative does it?

Here’s some other stats you really, really won’t like:

Manufacturing fall over the past year (year on year figures)>

Eurozone -3.3%
EU -2.2%
Ireland -9.1%
Germany -5.1%
Italy -2.6%

And what of the poor old UK, that country you love to keep telling us is in far worse shape than the EU? Well the figure for the UK was -1.7%, outperforming them all…wait for it……….DESPITE BREXIT.


#4388

Please learn how to quote a text. Here is the source:

nope, 4th quarter numbers come on 14th february and will likely be a positive surprise. A recession is unlikely says the statistics office and btw, the state and the federal states made a surplus of 59.2 bln in 2018 (1.7%). The state is investing a lot, but the capacities in the construction sector are fully busy so that the budgets that are deployed for building infrastructure cannot be fully spent.


#4389

It’s only haf the truth. The manufacturing sector is already much smaller in the UK.

Germany 26 %
Italy 19 %,
Spain 18 %
France 14%
UK 14 %

yes, the UK is doing worse if you measure it by the size of its manufacturing sector


#4390

hard to Treat ppl with respect who when talking about
Thugs in yellow vests screaming and a 62 y/o woman the she is a F****ing Nazi
instead of saying “they dont represent me” say "whatabout left wing thugs "


#4391

IMHO Article 50 will be extended until after the European elections in May. It’s a long shot but the goal posts may have moved by then looking at the political changes going on over there ?


#4392

Is that not treating 99.999 per cent of decent people with the same 0.001 per cent brush?