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Brexit Wars 3

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#4393

Sorry Arsanias,

I don’t follow. What do your percentages mean?

We know that the Chinese economy is in trouble and one of the targets of The Groper’s tariff wars. Germany exports FAR MORE to China than the UK and in those circumstances it would be likely that it would be hit harder by China’s problems than the UK. Nonetheless, I would rather prefer that the UK had the exporting strength of Germany than the little to lose position that the UK is in.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#4394

Maybe someone should remind you that the UK is actually still in the EU @HuwJarse… so your comment “DESPITE BREXIT” shows considerable ignorance.


#4395

HuwJarse posted numbers showing the “Manufacturing fall”. I wanted to put that in relation to the size of the manufacturing sector as a percentage of the GDP.

Exports from Jan to Oct
total +4.1%
+5% to the EU
+5.8% to the Euro zone
-2.8% to USA and China

Q4 numbers will be interesting.

-0.4% in September, but October exports were 0.7% up


#4396

I genuinely think you have a problem understanding basic mathematics. The other sectors in our economy grew, notably the service sector. Its why we are currently doing better. Must really hurt you to admit it.


#4397

Huw,

What do you anticipate will be the impact of leaving the single market on the UK’s financial services sector?

Frog


#4398

True J but I am sure you are aware all major businesses make investment decisions years in advance which will have taken Brexit into account
We are doing so well because of Brexit


#4399

No s**t Sherlock?? But you lot love to keep telling us Brexiteers about the damage the threat of Brexit and all the uncertainty is doing to our economy. The supposedly collapsing inward investment, Sterling weakness etc etc. Despite that we are still doing better. It simply bears out what I’ve been saying for the last year. The only thing keeping the Eurozone economies going was the ECB’s money printing. Now that has stopped they are falling back to their normal long term growth rate, a rate that is lower than the UK’s.
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#4400

As someone who works in Financial Services, minimal.


#4401

No wonder we are in deep trouble.

IMHO.

SBK


#4402

You are delusional RRW. All the projections other than the outlier Prof Minford are that any form of Brexit will be damaging to British GDP. I prefer to listen to the views of the vast majority of the leaders of industry which are overwhelmingly anti-Brexit.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree

p.s did you learn your plagarism in your role as an educationalist?


#4403

No, doesn’t hurt me, but in my opinion manufacturing is real economy creating values. Services is too often selling hot air. Don’t you agree that it’s exactly the services sector that is most threatened by Brexit? Banking without passporting?


#4404

I come to thinking that you are not really the brightest person. Brexit didn’t happen yet!


#4405

Another view from a financial expert like Jarse:

Who should we believe?

IMHO,

SBK


#4406

I am aware that investment planning and decision making has been happening but the full effects of that will be seen weeks/months after (and if) we leave the EU.
For example, in the Financial Services sector most large financial institutions already have created legal entities in EU states now and have either got or are in process of getting regulatory approval. For most, they will switch over processing to use these at points in either February or March.
For many, that means that business that used to be processed in the UK will now be shifted to EU states… in particular, for most, their non-UK business will be processed outside of the UK.

Result: less roles in UK, more in EU states for each company… a higher tax burden for UK taxpayers as the corp tax from these large companies will now be reduced as they will be taxed in EU states.

So the effect isn’t just about forward investment… it;s about reality of trading, settlement and operations.

That quite aside from the dependent industries: legal, vendors, procurement etc that is also moving parts of their business.


#4407

@HuwJarse So all you are saying is that there was a predicted Brexit ‘immediate shock’ effect by the Government/Treasury 3 years ago in the lead up to the Referendum (which was talking about the 2-year period after the vote)… which has proven to be less than 1/2 right… some things predicted correctly… some not.

That is far from the full effects of Brexit although for sure some are already being felt.
The full effect of Brexit will be felt AFTER the date that we Leave (if we indeed ever do).


#4408

Many people work in Financial Services… in fact it’s about 3.2% of all jobs in the UK.
The clueless nature of @HuwJarse’s remarks indicate he’s in a position of little or no consequence where he has little idea what is going on in his organisation.


#4409

From LK on the BBC:

"As another member of cabinet said: “The hardline Brexiteers will push us toward a softer Brexit by digging in their resistance.”

Keep it up lads!

Frog


#4410

The future of the City does not rest on Brexit, only naïve mugs like you believe that (every scaremongers dream). Given that London does by far the majority of its business with the rest of the world and it has a number of major advantages over all the European competition, I have absolutely no doubt it will continue to prosper. We’ve got the time zone, London’s trading day starts as the Tokyo market closes and a few hours before New York’s opens. We speak English, the world’s business language. Our legal and regulatory systems are better, it is easier to do business here. Best of all, London and its environs have 4 of the world’s top 25 universities (the rest of the EU has 1) that help attract people from overseas and provide the talent pool businesses want. London is the most multi-cultural city in the world, it is an absolute powerhouse. Brexit won’t change that.


#4411

These people exist in many guises. In Scotland there is a very large number of pro - independence 3rd rate rent-a-thugs.

I actually meant on this BB. The Leavers were sold a pig in a poke and feel betrayed. We can either all behave like children or we can take the Nelson Mandela approach.


#4412

More likely that there will be a merger between Celtic and Rangers football clubs than a meeting of minds over the Brexit issue.

IMHO,

SBK