Brexit Wars 3




Are you watching this live in Greece?



I got a message from Anna Soubry just now:

Dear Frog,

Thanks to your commitment, energy and passion over recent weeks and months, our campaign today took a very significant step forward. A clear majority of MPs have voted down the Government’s bad Brexit deal. And our chances of making the People’s Vote happen are now greater than ever before.

None of this would have been possible without you, so thank you. But the battle for a People’s Vote has only really just got going. In the coming weeks, we need to make sure that Parliament not only rejects the Government’s Brexit deal but agrees to a People’s Vote. Now is the time to take our campaign up to the next level and to get our message out to people across the country."

Thought you would like to know.


Frog in a tree


All going to plan. Well on course now for #BrexitRef2 in Summer.
No need to change any odds.

Latest odds (IMHO):

Remain in EU: (after #BrexitRef2): 35%
May Deal (inc. inevitable tweaks): 30%
Another Deal: 30%
No Deal: 5%



Unless Tory hardline Brexiters crumble, May’s deal even with tweaks looks dead in the water. The majority against is too big. She is seriously weakened, not least in the eyes of the EU.


Frog in a tree


I think Corbyn has jumped the gun here, with his “no confidence” vote proposal. Why interrupt the enemy while they are making mistakes?

These are not normal times. Jezza will lose no confidence vote tomorrow as despite this result, it is highly unlikely Tory rebels will hand power to a Labour government. Tories can’t get rid of her. She won’t resign. It’s stuck.


To be fair, no-one can be expected to have a blimming clue what to do next. It’s unprecedented. Even if the demented one did resign, what then? A lovely Tory leadership election. More time goes by. New leader inherits the same Commons arithmetic.

She needs to negotiate with Parliament, and see what they’ll accept, before she goes back and negotiates with the EU.

When she looks back over her disastrous Premiership she’ll rue not pursuing Brexit as a cross-Party initiative. Bit late to start now though




I think you are right that the “no confidence” vote will fail. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. The problem none the less will persist and to make a clear step change and keep some control the Tories need to change to a Leader who can lead the Commons to a decision. May is clearly incapable of this.


Frog in a tree


Well, I’m waiting for Broadmoor to tell us how May is going to get out of this Elephant trap that she dug for herself.

My overriding impression of Parliament these past two years is that it is stuck in the 19th Century. But that is really not a surprise as so are half the electorate who voted Leave.





Perhaps you have not followed the discussion on the Everyday thread? It may be the case, unfortunately, that BM1 has been put in Room 101 by admin, bad timing!

Frog in a tree


The Labour Party are in disarray. You will get a 2nd Referendum sooner or later. The EU aren’t going to start negotiating again. The reason for the rally in Sterling and Lloyds is because there is little chance of a Corbyn Government. Also the SNP are in turmoil.


Hi Mac

I don’t think Corbyn is affecting sterling or LLOY one jot. It has all been down to the obvious moves in the Commons to defeat a “no deal”. Nothing more and nothing less.


Frog in a tree


Unless… a handful of renegade Tories decide that a General Election (with a new Leader) is the only way forward. She did promise not to stand at the next election as Leader…

The reality now is that she can only double the number of people who support her by standing in front of a mirror.




Which qualifies JRM and the ERG as cowards.


Don’t think she will.

No Confidence Vote in Government will fail tomorrow.
TM will go back to EU and also pretend to seek cross-Party support.
EU will only provide some documents on clarity over backstop, some advances on future Deal maybe.
TM will return late next week (maybe week after) for another vote on tweaked May Deal.
Tweaked Deal downvoted again.
TM Resigns.
Sajid Javid becomes PM (how Grumpy Grandad will like that… Ha Ha… he’ll probably join Momentum).
Cross-Party attempts made to gain majority agreement on new type of Deal breakdown in late Feb.
Majority of MPs agree that only way forward is to call #BrexitRef2 to put decision on way forward into their hands: Remain, No Deal, tweaked May Deal… or new Deal… and Article 50 extended.
Remain wins.
Froglet closes Brexit Wars 3.
Job Done.


“Sajid Javid becomes PM (how Grumpy Grandad will like that… Ha Ha… he’ll probably join Momentum)”

I did genuinely laugh out loud at that thought!


Frog in a tree


One thing is clear now: with two third against the deal, nobody knows what alterations to the deal would satisfy enough PMs to have a majority behind it. The EU will not have much motivation to even start another round.

The only way May can save her deal now is a public vote asking not more than
a) accept deal
b) deny deal and leave without

she cannot offer an option “c) remain” as it would probably win over a) and b)


She would have to offer Remain Arsanias…

Frog in a tree


The biggest defeat in parliament in. Living memory is humiliating for the PM. Normally she would resign but these are strange times . She has to rule out a NO deal immediately. Then find a consensus in the house. Norway type deal anyone?


A man who pays his taxes in the UK, unlike EU loving Branson. Surprised J_Westlock hasn’t been to his island to have a moan given how much he cares about UK tax collection.


As Corbyn has now called this no confidence vote, where does that leave him if she wins it (as she obviously will do)? As someone with no time for either of them, he looks every bit as dimwitted and out of touch as she does. Brexit is the Tories’ mess without a doubt, but the alternative still looks as bad if not worse and that is damning for Corbyn.

Corbyn is a monumental coward in all this. A Remain pledge would make calls for an election irresistible and they’d walk it despite losing their racist pensioners.

Open goal and he can’t bring himself to shoot.

Said it before, but how the hell have we ended up with these two as the only real candidates for PM? If it’s true that we get the leaders we deserve then we really are at rock bottom as a country. It’s utterly shameful.