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Brexit Wars 3

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lse:lloy
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#12270

You are kidding yourself fiat, nobody can be ar55ed with polls.
You will see the support the Brexit party have in the EU elections, the Conservatives know the problems ahead one was talking the other day that come election time they will have to do a deal with the Brexit party.
It is unprecedented for a new party to get +80,000 members at £25 a pop right off the bat.
That’s why they are attacking farage so aggressively.
Marr just looked like a stooge following must attack farage orders.
If that was Change UK sourbry on Marr he wouldn’t shut up about how unusual it is to get such a big membership at £25 a pop, but as we know Change UK don’t want any change at all.
And don’t have many members.
Marr just seemed to attack for the sake of it and didn’t want to talk about the new party at all.
He should have been asking questions about what policy’s the Brexit party have on different subjects and what they plan on doing in the general election etc.
But instead he just talked about stuff farage said 4-5-6 years ago that is already well documented by the way.
We know he’s told lies, but we also know Corbyn and May have told as many or more, and folks just want a complete change, we want to kick the EU, Tories and Labour into the rough.


#12271

You are kidding yourself Shareordie. The interview was a car crash for Farage. It was heated, but mostly on account of Farage avoiding the questions and talking over Marr. Farage has a history of lying and saying anything to please his audience at the time.

I agree that Labour and Conservatives will take a kicking. I shall doing my part by voting LIbDem. In terms of share of the vote, imperfect as they are, all we have to go on are the opinion polls. The latest published in the Independent says:

“According to the research – including only those who said they will definitely vote – the Brexit Party enjoys 26 per cent support while Labour is in second place with 22 per cent. Ms May’s Conservative Party are in fourth place with 12 per cent after being leapfrogged by the Liberal Democrats who are on 19 per cent. The Green Party also hold 10 per cent support.”

If this polling is anywhere near correct we can see that the undiluted Brexit party can secure a quarter of the vote. Given that the two major parties are internally split on Brexit it is hard to determine how the vote would pan out if there was a second referendum but I tend to go with the opinion polling which suggests a 10% lead for Remain.

The other finding discussed in this article is that the Brexit Party is predominantly an old persons’ party with fewer and fewer supporters in younger ages groups. We should beware of the consequences of older generations foisting an unwanted Brexit on the younger folk.

Something there for all of us I think.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#12272

yes hes labour but fully behind a peoples vote which Corbyn etc is still on the fence so how will anyone know If a labour vote is pro/anti


#12273

Perhaps a Labour vote would be a ‘don’t care’ vote! :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

I cannot see Remain voters choosing Labour, given Corbyn’s fence sitting…same for Brexit voters, who will be worried about losing Brexit to a 2nd referendum.

So Labour & the Tories will both get hammered in the EU vote (IMO). Could that unblock the Brexit impasse?..MP’s worried about re-election could begin to look seriously for a way out of this mess but given the ideological split in parliament I’m not sure if they will find a realistic majority (they may agree another pointless fantasy Malthouse type compromise though).


#12274

That is the whole issue about Labour. They sit on the fence with talk about a customs union Brexit and talk of a confirmatory vote so no-one really knows what they stand for.

What is clear that by trying to appeal to both Remainers and Leavers Labour is shooting itself in the foot.

Frog


#12275

Labour is in a dilemma, one cannot please all the people all of the time. Labour is in danger of pleasing nobody (IMO)…which I would have thought is political suicide.

TM is in the same boat…nobody is ‘happy’ with her deal or her approach to Brexit.


#12276

May is now saying a vote in early June. The DUP are already grumbling. It seems unlikely that any meaningful changes will have been made since the last MV. I guess that this is all part of May’s exit strategy and if she loses again she would most likely resign so that a fresh pair of hands could make a fresh try. Given that any successor would be a hard Brexiter it would seem unlikely that s/he would be any more successful in driving through a deal.

Cheers,

Frog


#12277

This time it’s a vote on the withdrawal bill (so it doesn’t count as a ‘meaningful’ vote). I believe that she has to hold the vote to stand any chance of Brexiting this Parliamentary session (before Parliament recess). Probably as you say her last throw of the dice before she departs. Any new PM would make a deal with Labour impossible (IMO).

Tory MP Blunt was on Sky News today suggesting that the Tories could have some sort of pact with the Brexit Party to fight a GE…which suggests to me the Tories are really scared by Farage.


#12278

Indeed you are right Oili. I hadn’t been paying attention. This explains:

Cheers,

Frog


#12279

It would make sense if then his comments weren’t all about promoting a Party that advocates Leaving the EU without a Deal.


#12280

If I call someone a jerk Oily… that’s an insult.
Pointing out that someone on an internet board is suspect in their comments isn’t being insulting… it’s just an observation. And it obviously hit home as he then responded with abuse.

He is one of several posters who’ve proclaimed that they voted Remain and then do nothing but promote Leave. That’s fine… it’s an internet forum after all… but neither you or anyone else will stop me pointing that out.


#12281

If a Party leader has a history of being a Liar and involved in taking money illegally (found guilty) from overseas why would anyone believe this tosh when the donations are all anonymous eg below £500…
ITS a CONN like BREXIT


#12282

Same Argument WHATABOUT so why not another Vote with the truth this time

Marr just seemed to attack for the sake of it and didn’t want to talk about the new party at all.
He should have been asking questions about what policy’s the Brexit party have on different subjects and what they plan on doing in the general election etc.

Pity they dont have a manifesto to discuss…
AND here is a dissected analysis of the interview bet you wont watch it…


#12283

Hi Pete,

The byline article was interesting and makes a very good point that our political funding regs are 20 years out of date and have little chance of preventing unlawful funding. With Farage, he is such a liar and a cheat that he cannot be trusted at all.

Frog


#12284

So people at the rallies that also don’t get any media attention are all Russian dolls then?
Sorry the turnout at the Brexit party rallies tell the truth. And you will see by the massive votes they get in the EU elections will shock the Labour/Conservative parties.
The polls have been wrong for quite some time now, but I expect a landslide


#12285

Shareordie,

I have no doubt that bitter old Brexiters are flocking to see their guru but realistically you cannot expect the BBC to be there for all of them. They did cover Farage’s sparsely attended long march. It is not as if Farage isn’t getting a lot of media attention.

BTW you might enjoy the Femi analysis of the Marr interview…but not a lot! Femi was bang on the money and his assessment was the same as mine. Marr did a fine job in challenging Farage and Farage didn’t like being challenged on the things he said in the past.

50 or so Brexiters turning up at a meeting doesn’t say much about the mood of the country. At most it says that there are a fair few angry Brexiters who see their impossibilist dream crumbling in the face of reality.

As I have said previously, it looks likely that the pro-Brexit vote will consolidate in support for the (old peoples’) Brexit Party and that because the Remain support is split among the other parties that the BP will get the biggest share of the vote. I expect that they will get 30 to 35% at most. There are a lot of people out there who recognise that Farage is an extreme right winger. Electing someone like that who doesn’t even publish a manifesto is in my view extremely dangerous.

We all know that opinion polls have a margin of error, usually considered around 3%, but what evidence do you have that these polls are wrong? There was a clear shift to Remain parties in the local elections if you recall.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#12286

Also Farage is far more brave when it comes to speaking on shows etc, when was the last time may was on a show hosted by someone open about Brexit and not a remainer and answering questions, in fact when has May allowed and free range questions in public.
It’s hard to remember any time, may just puts a stand outside number ten has a pre done speech reads it and runs off.
Corbyn doesn’t answer any questions any more hardly anything of use, he tells northerners he wants to leave the EU and southerners he wants to stay, May has lied for 2 years straight, so has Corbyn yet you all pick out Farage for lies.lol
Now Corbyn is saying more lies about giving everyone so much a week no matter what, but doesn’t know where the money comes from.
They are all lying on mass.


#12287

It won’t be a shock to anyone @shareordie… other than those who are stupid.
There will be ‘mock shock’ from the Labour and Tory Leaders on the day of the results… then that will be that.

You seem to keep ignoring that just 5 years ago… Farage with his UKIP Party… got 24 MEPs.
Why shouldn’t Brexit Party achieve the same?

If they don’t they won’t even be surpassing UKIP… which is now pretty much a dead Party that’s just the political wing of the EDL.


#12288

At last we have an area of agreement…Corbyn! Personally I am skeptical that Labour under Corbyn could ever gain a majority in the HofC even with all the help that the Tories are giving him at the moment.

Other than Labour’s interest, there is quite a lot of interest in Basic Income elsewhere in the world. In recent days Finland has been mooted as a country that is considering it very seriously. It sounds expensive on the face of it but it is likely that swathes of benefit payments and associated bureaucracy would be eliminated and in part pay for it. But, as I said I don’t think Corbyn will get into power without have to enter coalition. There is much that could be done to share wealth more fairly between the generation so that young uns like that nipper on your shoulder might have a fairer chance in life.

No one lies more than Farage as was clearly demonstrated by the Marr programme. As I suggested you would do well to watch the Femi clip posted by PTN but I doubt that you are man enough…

Cheers,

Frog


#12289

The Brexit Party is a Party designed for those coffin dodgers who are tired of life and so mean-spirited that they don’t care about making things worse for their own offspring and just want a final angry say at the world as they shuffle off it into oblivion.