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Brexit Wars 3

lse:hsba
lse:lloy
lse:barc

#12350

I don’t need to reply but I will. It seems Frog you have told everyone here everything they need to know about you.
You have been evasive about a very simple question concerning money and then claim to have answered it.
You have claimed how much you care about serving the community.
You have stated you have never felt the need to rob the public purse.
I believe you have said politicians have a desire to serve as does Theresa May (If I have interpreted your reply correctly)
You make assumptions about people after reading a couple of posts without knowing anything else at all.
You are then offensive.
Then you run away.
If you’re not an MP/ MEP then you are surely on your way.
Anyway, I must go. I have work I must do. I have to work hard to earn money to pay my taxes and support, i forget, how many MPs and Lords have we?


#12351

Indeed J_W.
If Brexit happens though I doubt they will get much if any pay dependent upon timescales of course.


#12352

You’re right there.

  • 650 MPs … plus £1.6bn on their new (temporary) office block + £4bn doing up their own place
  • 800 (unelected) members of House of Lords (for most, jobs for life)
  • Paying for the Monarchy (The Queen and a host of associated hangers on)… the Sovereign Grant… Duchy of Cornwall… Duchy of Lancaster… Parliamentary annuity for Phil etc.

Still it’s good that when we leave the EU… we’ll be able to take back control of all this and make great savings.


#12353

The above article from the BBC website has some useful analysis of current polling of voting intentions.

One difficulty that is discussed is the issue of how to interpret the Remain v Leave support among Tory and Labour voters. It suggests:

It’s possible to get a clue to this by looking at the detailed breakdown of the polling figures. This can be a risky business because the subsamples in polls aren’t always representative so you can get misleading results. However, in this case the pattern is very consistent. People who say they will vote Conservative are evenly split between Remain and Leave. But people who say they’ll vote Labour favour Remain by about 3:1.

Who knows if this is correct, given the migration of a part of the Tory and Labour votes to other parties, but I reckon that this analysis is about as good as it will get. Applying those splits in the Tory and Labour votes and adding them to the totals for the Remain parties I get 63%. This is most likely an overestimate because no doubt there will be a small percentage of the Liberal and SNP votes that are hidden Brexiters. However, it remains a fair assumption that the support for Remain is somewhere a little above 55% which is what we would expect from national opinion polling.

The other point mooted is that it might be useful to look at turnout in Remain and Leave voting areas as an indication of the motivation to vote in a subsequent referendum.

I might add that it would be useful for post election analysis to look at whether younger voters turn out in higher numbers than usual.

The EU elections have been pumped as a proxy referendum but it will be difficult to draw any firm conclusions unless the Brexit Party achieves a majority of the popular vote…which they won’t.

There have been suggestions that if the Brexit Party does well in the EU vote that they should be given a role in the parliamentary cross-party discussions. This would be refused by both Labour and Tory parties, quite rightly.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#12354

PSB, it would be ‘wonderfully’ ironic if you happened to be another personification of our old pal Boradmoor…no, you cannot be, not even he would have the gall to preach others about morals (when he seemed to lack any himself).

PSB seems to have taken an instant dislike to Fiat…a coincidence ‘perhaps’!!


#12355

But still Corbyn ignores them…or throws them a worn out bone about ‘a 2nd referendum remaining an option’!! :face_with_raised_eyebrow:


#12356

Follow Back Pro EU loads of honest folks on twitter just telling the truth NOT back by Racist RW groups and cheating.


#12357

PTN,
Alternatively
Fanciful Boll**ks Promoting Europe?
JAR


#12358

clever and really grown up… NOT

Latest Farage Rally In Wales… oops


#12359

At least one TV channel is doing its job…


#12360

Funny, you’d think with all the support remain had in their marches etc that it’d be “change UK” grabbing all the headlines?
Seems they’re falling apart already…

Yet it’s Farage that’s causing the most panic …


#12361

It’s easy to sell a fantasy…the truth is far harder, especially when it isn’t what people want to hear.


#12362

Welcome “Superbiker”! I see you joined this evening. Perhaps you are an old friend?

Cheers,

Frog


#12363

Hello Fynne,

I hope the sun shines in Greece as it does here.

Certainly you are right that both Tories and Labour will be worried by the Brexit Party, the Tories more so I think.

The indications are that the Tories will be devastated and that Labour will be damaged. Sadly, Labour has followed Corbyn’s lead rather than listening to the bulk of its membership and its supporters who overwhelmingly support Remain.

It is very likely that the Brexit Party will secure the most seats but it matters little. They will not come out with a majority share of the vote. See my post of earlier today. I reckon they could secure a third of the votes cast…a minority as you will appreciate.

I really do hope that the Brexit Party and the Tories will find it necessary to merge in some way. That should see the Brexit Party condemned to oblivion and the Tories out of office for a long time.

The final battle will come with the second referendum. As you will be aware Remain is polling 55+% over Leave. If there is a second Referendum hopefully this time there will be clearly set out choices. Whatever the outcome I will accept it.

Cheers,

Frog


#12364

I wish the Pro remain parties SNP, Plaid cymru, Change ,Greens ,Lib Dems and the many Remain Labour and Tories would work together as this fraud would be stopped by now but maybe thats the nature of Politics. I also see rising support for LIB DEMS especially with many joining them,
I know you ignore it but news channels are homing in on Farage and his obvious illegal funding… will have an affect as he is a crook and worse…


#12365

Really??? … You want me to watch Russell Brand and take him seriously!
not going to happen … another rich twat
… sorry Pete but that is dredging the pits … He is lower than Tony Blair and that’s pretty low … imho


#12366

…but nowhere as low as Farage…

Frog


#12367

Not as rich as the Brexit Tax avoider’s pumping money into Brexit to keep Tax Havens.
Pity you hadn’t the guts to watch it but the biggest cheer and best line was

> POUNDSHOP ENOCH POWELL

All the Brexit racial incitement has bad effects on our country it incites and angers people with obvious lies… I really believe this guy who lawyer said

Brexit and immigration were “playing on” Dowd’s mind when he committed the crime

is a result of LEAVE posts and Tabloids headlines eg Swarms Hoards of Migrant criminals etc etc etc


#12368

Replying to myself, I hear on the BBC news that Grayling’s civil service advisers warned him that his probation service plans were risky and bound to fail. Just as I said in my earlier post. It seems to be as I suspected that Grayling bulldozed it through. Grayling may well be a Bonehead but a deeper question arises, who in the Tory administration was minding the shop? An effective administration would have closed down Grayling’s plans.

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#12369

How is Grayling still in office? In any other walk of life, he’d have been fired a long time ago.

You’re quite right, its not his fault that he’s in a job way above his ability and pay grade; the blame is with the people giving him a job and then not holding him to account!