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Brexit Wars 3

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#18692

Top trading partners of the UK. Without EU clout behind us we have to try to deal with the other two biggest global economies in the world, and of course a trade deal with the EU hasn’t yet begun to be negotiated for those who think uncertainty will end November 1st.

Note the imbalance with the USA which Trump wants to address with tariffs and Congress is refusing to pass any new deal - should one be proposed after the Good Friday Agreement has been binned.

Still, we have a deal to sell lamb to Japan now! It amounts to a few percent of what we currently sell to the EU which will be priced out of competition in a No Deal scenario.


#18693

But isn’t the Dollar lower, how do they survive.
The Americans must be really poor and doing very badly using your measurement of how well the economy is doing.
There are plenty of countries with lower currency rates than ours that are doing just fine, in fact it has been known that sometimes countries try and lower there own currency to make them more competitive.
I agree we are not in our normal trading range with some other currencies but we can still buy a big mac for less than our Euro neighbours.
So if we get parity with the euro does that make spain Italy and Greece OK.
It’s nice that remainers have something economic to point at. Because its getting harder to pick fault at our economy and not notice the EU doing not so good either.
So much so the EU has started employing dodgy characters again, I wonder if its because they have beeen proven to be able to fudge figures that they have been chosen for top jobs?
It does make you think.
https://github.com/TheEconomist/big-mac-data/releases/tag/2019-07


#18694

But isn’t the Dollar lower, how do they survive.
The Americans must be really poor and doing very badly using your measurement of how well the economy is doing.
There are plenty of countries with lower currency rates than ours that are doing just fine, in fact it has been known that sometimes countries try and lower there own currency to make them more competitive.

The dollar is lower? Against what? I think that you will find your dollar buys more pounds sterling since the Brexit induced fall in Sterling. At the time of the referendum the pound in your pocket would have bought 1.40 euros. Today it buys only 1.09 euros. This of course makes the Big Mac you buy in Spain with sterling converted to euros much more expensive than it otherwise would have been.

Take care with your exchange rate judgements Shareordie!

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#18695

Seen the latest opinion polls Westlock? By-elections mean jack.

The Tories are 10% ahead in the polls already and Johnson v Marxist grsndpa is a non contest. Corbyn’s popularity keeps finding ways to plum new depths.


#18696

This reminds me of conversation I had with an old Granny in Canada once who was complaining about the discrepancy in exchange rates between the Canadian dollar and the US dollar. She thought all currencies essentially traded at 1:1.

She was half senile and I was soon warned off by her family when I tried to explain it to her.

I remember that advice and I’ll follow it here. You seem to be equally at sea.


#18697

Hi

A UK politics/Parliament procedure question.

As the Conservatives only have a 1 pt majority including the DUP support, what would happen if for any reason the DUP decided to withdraw their support ?

Would Parliament be dissolved and a GE need to be called or not ?
Anyone like to give their opinion on the possibility % of the DUP withdrawing their support ?

Thank You.

soi


#18698

I am fully aware that the Dollar buys more pounds now than a while back, (I own apple and alibaba stock) but its still not parity with gbp so its lower than gbp,
As in the big mac index I have posted.
I am not comparing past with present like yourself I am just showing you present.
And you can still buy a big mac in the UK with less pounds than usd in the US and less pounds than euros in the EU.
Maybe it’s hard for remainers to think in the present.


#18699

Not automatically, the government would have to lose a 3 line whipped vote, I think, possibly then followed by a vote of No confidence. Or the opposition may just be able to call for a vote of no confidence. I know Churchill encouraged several during the War, but I’m not sure how they were initiated and whether or not procedures have changed.

In such situations, governments tend not to introduce anything too controversial which will motivate the opposition.

Not quite sure what game the DUP are playing. The government wont try for anything electorally dangerous without getting their backing first. If they say they wont support it, probably the government wont go forward with it (unless there are ‘rebels’ elsewhere).

The outcome of most votes are known before they are held, as I understand it.


#18700

It has never ever been parity with the GBP. Do you think all currencies once started at parity with each other and then diverged?

(I Can’t read your big mac piece, unfortunately, can’t you load it up and then paste a screen shot or something? I’m intrigued.)


#18701

Sorry about that Eadwig, I was too lazy to search out Jarse’s original post. I mean, why would I bother?

“depreciated a little” (the £). You couldn’t make it up!

And due to “project fear”! As if the markets are swayed by anything other than hard facts - such as the hike in Trump’s trade war with China yesterday and Britain obviously going to Hell in a handcart.

IMHO,

SBK


#18702

Wasn’t it you Brexiteer mob who were crowing when the Brexit Party won some seats in… the European Parliament? Does that mean jack too? But now… the opinions polls all of a sudden do? If so… you’d better tell John so you keep your stories in-line.

Of course, your being selective of what opinion polls you look at… have you seen the opinion poll difference now between those wanting to Remain vs Leave… it’s an 8% difference… most now want to Remain in the EU. Of course, you will discount that opinion poll I guess…


#18703

Is this a serious comment @shareordie ?


#18704

That’s a classic!

Denial, denial, denial!

Indeed, but I must point out it was @HuwJarse who said it after he voted to take a massive pay cut. Once again you’ve managed to attribute what he said to me.

Are @HuwJarse and I really that alike in our views?
[/quote]

Eadwig,

My offending post updated above in the interests of historical accuracy and of course accepting that no sane person would want to be confused with Jarse.

Particularly enjoyed your 17591 post BTW.

IMHO,

SBK


#18705

Ah I see… so Japan is doing worse off than UK because it costs about 380 Yen for a Big Mac rather than just £3 as in the UK…

380 > 3

yep… makes total sense now.


#18706

Maybe it is hard for Brexiters to think logically and consider the data?

As Eadwig points out below, there has never been parity between 1 euro, 1 pound and 1 dollar. These currencies have floating exchange rates which will be modified by political and economic events.

As I said, at the time of the referendum the £/euro exchange rate was a lot higher. Your pound would have bought around 22% more euros then than now. That’s nearly a quarter of your Spanish Big Mac.

Pricing comparisons are further complicated by local tax rates, wages and other incidentals but also by pricing power, i.e. What the producer think the market will stand in terms of price.

Disregarding Big Macs for a moment, I too can draw equally spurious comparisons in terms of supermarket wine. In France I can buy a perfectly decent French appellation controllée red wine for 2.19 euros a bottle. At the current exchange rate that is £2/bottle. So what does that prove? What I can also say is that before the Brexit sterling devaluation that bottle would have cost £1.56/bottle. Ouch!

The truth is in the tape as some of our friends say. On exchange rates, following the referendum vote the value of sterling has fallen dramatically against both the euro and the dollar and so it is the case that steling is certainly the weaker of these currencies.

You said “I am not comparing past with present like yourself I am just showing you present”.

That is bonkers! To understand the relative appreciation or decline in value of a currency you have to do so over a specific timeframe. I hope my illustrations above have helped you to understand this.

A final point, have you noticed that when the chances of a “no deal” Brexit rise, that the pound sterling falls in value against the dollar and the euro. That tells you all you need to know about what the markets think a hard Brexit will do to our economy.

Continue to bury your head in the sands of Brexit if it makes you happier in your delusions.

All the best,

Frog in a tree


#18707

I thought that it would be worthwhile posting here my latest contribution to the" PM Johnson Manchester Speech" thread, one in which I have been under siege from by megaidiots:

“dkok. Northern Ireland is within the EU borders. I don’t think there has been complete peace there since 1973?”

There has been virtually total peace for 20 years in Northern Ireland with only rare acts of criminal violence. The peace I was referring to was “war between states”, not terrorism.

The rest of that post of yours is a reasonable point of view. Obviously I disagree with all of it.

The naked truth is that the EU will carry on being successful and consolidate and the UK will still be in it. Currently there is a 8% Remain majority in surveys.

Let us say that in the unlikely event Johnson is still there in October and takes the UK out of the EU to try and save the Conservative Party (his only ambition besides his own) that would not stand. The ensuing trouble would force another Referendum early next year.

There is no way the Brexit you desire can be a success with half or more of it being against it as with any major constitutional change. Especially with a background of demographic change as I have previously explained.

Please feel free to join in. LOL!

IMHO,

SBK


#18708

Volatility?

The value of my portfolio reached a record high this Tuesday but has fallen back by nearly 3% since. Ouch! Despite quite a good flow of divis into the pot over the last few days.

We can understand how the Brexit news depresses sterling and consequentially raises the share prices of large internationally trading FTSE 100 members but then there are the tweeted trade wars announcements by The Groper. These clearly have an impact on share prices and exchange rates. Is anyone else suspicious that some of The Groper’s family and associates may be pre-warned of these tweets so they can make a quick buck on market movements?

Cheers,

Frog in a tree


#18709

I’ve been saying that for 2 years in another place where today I also wrote:

" Trump should be impeached for ruining my COMP entry by trashing the market, I was on the money too calling the results reaction right.

I also see that the US has pulled out of the Cold War Intermediate Nuclear Arms agreement with Russia. So strategically they think that a nuclear war could be limited, say using Poland as a battlefield.

I would like to see Trump get a place in Madam Tussaud’s, not as a wax effigy, but stuffed."

IMHO,

SBK


#18710

Exactly the intention of the US and the latest moves regarding intermediate weapons are precisely about that point.
For the US, they would, if it came to it, fight a war within the confines of European states. Those who suggest it would definitely escalate beyond that with long range missiles being used are not basing that on what US military commanders have already said on this in the past.


#18711

On the page there are different files, the one I got to work was xls which you should be able to open in excel as its a spreadsheet.
And no I don’t think that all currency started out at parity.
But the purchasing power of the pound is still higher than the dollar and the euro like I have said all along.
It doesn’t seem to have held the US back.
And you take Germany out of the euro and see what happens.
And the only reason Germany is in such a good position is because it has ducked out of its defence obligations for so long.
And its debt repayment was let off.