A quick check in to the echo chamber to see what nonsense is the order of today and I come across this little gem. So, lets make a couple of assumptions then. Lets assume that we leave and that everything you say about the EU negotiating position is true. They don’t negotiate, they don’t compromise on the backstop and we leave with no deal.
The UK is the second biggest economy in Europe, as big as the 19 smallest EU members combined. From an economic perspective, the EU is shrinking from 27 member states to 9. Now, the impact of that on Germany is pretty severe for a number of reasons, these being:
- German exports will suffer (as if they aren’t enough already).
- Germany is going to either have to pick up a sizable chunk of the budget shortfall or somehow persuade disaffected eastern European states to accept stringent cuts. The same states who, to quote Frank Lee:
“Those Eastern European states which emerged from the break-up of the Soviet Union had been led to believe that a bright new world of West European living standards, enhanced pay levels, high rates of social mobility and consumption were on offer.
Unfortunately, they were sold an illusion: the result of the transition so far seems to have been the creation of a low-wage hinterland, a border economy on the fringes of the highly developed European core; a Euro version of NAFTA and the maquiladora, i.e., low tech, low wage, low skills production units on the Mexican side of the US’s southern borders”.
But even this isn’t the worst of it because;
- Without the UK as an EU member, Germany will no longer be able to assemble a blocking majority (35%) in Council. Without this, Germany may not be able to stop the crisis-ridden, Club-Med States and France, from reaching into community funds. That my friend, is its very worst fear made flesh.
But hey, despite there being extremely powerful reasons for Germany to move heaven and earth to broker a deal, we’ll go with your doomsday, project fear scenario. If the EU / UK relationship is severely fractured by a difficult no deal, in what universe do you imagine that
a) there would be any political will in the UK to rejoin an institution that had allowed us to rupture so badly and ;
b) any chance of the EU allowing that to happen under anything but the most draconian terms?. You are absolutely barking mate, you simply do not have a scooby do you?