Menu
Close

Brexit Wars 3

lse:hsba
lse:lloy
lse:barc

#20835

Let’s see. You are marooned on a Greek island and I’m in England. There are a lot of the great unwashed and old who still like Johnson but the middle classes and younger people don’t. The Tories I know are aghast at his antics. He is loathed in Scotland and most of Wales. Business people are fed up with the whole charade and want to Remain in the EU.

Assume that he is still PM at the next election, if he has a got a deal with the EU or still pretends that he wants one he’ll split the Leaver vote between the Tories and the Brexit Party and lose. If he comes out for No Deal then most commonsense people everywhere will vote for the opposition parties. He’ll lose Scotland to the SNP, Tory seats to the Lib Dems and the DUP will lose out in Northern Ireland. He might pick up some Labour seats in the North. The most likely outcome of which would be another hung Parliament. Back to square one. Then another Referendum, won by Remain.

However, I think the accident prone Johnson will be finished in the next few weeks. He’s going to be buried under a mountain of disobliging leaks and revelations from the new army of enemies he has created.

IMHO,

SBK


#20836

Either way, Johnson won’t be PM come the end of October.


#20837

Hi JW,

One likes to think so. I also want to believe that Corbyn could still be PM. I live in hope. But I’m less convinced that Johnson can’t still sneak a GE win on a rising tide of Brexit populism.

To clarify: if younger voters mobilise & come out to vote in significant numbers, I think you’ll be proven right. However, that’s not certain. If they don’t, there’s still significant support for any form of Brexit, a Tory coalition with Farage’s BP to target Labour strongholds seems likely & we still have disunity in the opposition. Those factors combined could well see Johnson continue after winning a GE, though probably with a very small majority

As I see it, No Deal-demanding Brexiteers are a bit akin to very young children with rotting teeth who ignore all warnings to their dental health, but continue demanding yet more candy.

There’ll be an inevitable price to pay for a No Deal, as for any Brexit Deal, though to a lesser degree with a Deal. That cost won’t be fully realised for some while to come. But for now there are enough hardcore Brexiteers who, like the said children, don’t care about L/T consequences as satisfying their rabid Nationalism feels so damned good. - Regards.


#20838

Yes, but:
a) there isn’t going to be a GE by end of October.
b) unless Johnson backtracks and does send the letter to the EU in mid-October… then he won’t be the PM come end of October.

They will have to quickly appoint a new Tory Leader and acting PM who will then have to immediately face a GE… and that will quite likely be Sajid Javid or Gove. Can’t see them getting someone with common sense back like Ken Clarke.

I’m struggling to see another scenario here. Anyways, my bets are placed… good odds too… I got 30/1 on Javid and 33/1 on Gove the other day. I also got 3/1 on Johnson exiting during 2019… though those odds are closing rapidly to Evens.


#20839

JW,

As it stands, most probably not by October’s end. But I hark back to my view yesterday: any other PM would almost certainly resign in these circumstances. However, this is self-serving, mendacious Boris Johnson, who also seems heavily swayed by the advice he receives from the powerful Cummings. I don’t think Cummings wants to lose his useful idiot just yet. Not as long as Johnson’s ratings remain high in the opinion polls.

One report doing the rounds is that Johnson will in the meantime be trying to p1ss off EU leaders to such a degree that at least one sees this mess as an intractable problem without resolution & refuses to agree to an extension. That would see UK out. Considering the ongoing limbo is costly to both sides & adding further costs the longer it drags on, some like Macron might view that as the least worst option.

However remote, there exist other possibilities for an early GE. Government may try to pass new legislation that requires a simple majority to call an early GE, though that would be open to amendments.

Far less likely, but also an option, is the possibility that the government calls a vote of no confidence against itself, hoping the opposition fails to form a lasting Unity government. Latter would be very high risk.

I just have this sense that Johnson, after all his efforts to be PM, won’t be relinquishing his position so easily after just a few weeks. I think he’ll fight on to the bitter end. Presumably we’ll find out fairly soon. - GL. - Edit: typo


#20840

Still waiting for your reply @fynne


#20841

Fynne, you do not have any basic level of understanding of the economics of migration into the UK. It is well established that most EU migrants are young and have few children. Being young they require fewer public services including health than the average UK citizen. They tend to come to work and their taxes are a net benefit to the Treasury after what they do access in public services. Aside from all that, they do jobs that Brits won’t do and they meet a need for employees which otherwise couldn’t be met. Sure, there are gaps in public services but these are the effects of government policy rather than the needed migrant workers. In the end, if we do Brexit you will find that migrant workers will come at the same rate as previously as we neeed the labour.

Frog in a tree


#20842

Is The Groper losing it?

An interesting read from Business Insider:

Frog


#20843

I’ve been saying for some time that the US dotard is showing all the signs of a dementia.
It’s sad but someone needs to get him out of there and direct him to his golf course.


#20844

Right wing populism is most likely a form of mental illness…

Frog


#20845

“It’s sad but someone needs to get him out of there and direct him to his golf course.”

Just desserts…

Frog


#20846

I think the EU leaders are wise enough to do nothing. Why should they at this stage?

As for the simple majority notion to get an election called, where would this come from seeing as how he has shot a couple of dozen of his own team?

Also I don’t see Johnson going to jail as they are musing in the media. Prisons don’t allow Bollinger or nubile wenches to be smuggled in, just drugs and weapons. He wouldn’t like it. I can’t imagine the wimps in his Government like Raab, Mogg, Gove, Javid and Hancock joining him in the H Blocks and going on hunger strike either. More is the pity.

Meanwhile I hear that Cummings has banned Mogg from attending events to promote his appalling (according to the critics) book about the Victorians. I also read that Farage and Cummings don’t like each other. Apparently Cummings regards Farage as being no better than a street urchin, so one must admit that he’s not wrong about everything.

IMHO,

SBK


#20847

Because Macron will want to show who’s boss?
They will seize upon this show of disloyalty to try and enforce their position.
You guys are blinded by your ambition to remain … if this goes the way you are pushing for expect to be quite royally shafted … buns may enjoy this of course
But for those who care about the uk try and look a little deeper into these shenanigans please


#20848

When did the three stooges last discuss Lloyds Bank?
Anyone remember?
Next Question
Do they ever come up for air?
If so
Which end does it come out?
Salutations


#20849

Fynne - you and your Brexiteer cohorts are doing the UK down.
All Government and all independent analysis shows that the UK will suffer by the UK leaving the EU: a lower GDP, fewer jobs, less Corp tax collected, worse environmental standards and worse food standards to name just a few of the many reasons.

And when you or your Brexiteer mates are questioned on your reasons for voting to Leave the EU… then you clam up… because you are quickly found out.


#20850

Dah
Salutations


#20851

@rossx48 still waiting for you to explain what you meant when you said:

All from an excess immigration matter.

And why is it that you write like a 12 year old?


#20852

SBK,

I don’t disagree on the whole. But as stated, having further extensions without obvious purpose or end is costing both sides. Macron isn’t the only EU leader who previously suggested that 31/10 was a final deadline. So whilst I think a further extension most likely will be granted, IMO, it’s probably also contingent on some EU leaders believing that UK can finally resolve this ongoing Brexit impasse.

As mentioned, new legislation for a simple majority to get an early GE would also be open to amendments. Some of which might appeal to opposition MPs. Especially if the date could also be fixed. Note that a few Labour MPs & an Indy defied previous advice to make-up some of the 298 MPs who voted in favour of a snap GE in last week’s defeated motion.

Indeed, I’ve read that Cummings has little time for Farage. But the necessities of realpolitik suggests that a Tory deal with the BP to target Labour-held Brexit areas could still be done.

As it stands, I think almost any one of a few scenarios can happen over the next few weeks. Some of it could get very messy indeed before we know where we’re headed to next. - Regards.


#20853

The chance of a GE before November is zero.

You are right that Johnson could deliberately try to foul the relationship with EU leaders but they are clever enough to be closely monitoring the political situation in UK, know that a GE is imminent and that anything short of a Tory majority will almost certainly result in #BrexitRef2.

Bring it on.


#20854

The current trouble between parliament and government makes the constitutional flaws obvious… and then there a useless anachronisms as the privy council or even the monarch itself.

I read today that when the UK leaves the EU it also leaves a more modern legal sphere. When the UK joined in 1973 it accepted the primacy of the ECJ and became part of a political system where decisions are not “Winner takes it all” as in the UK, but are the result of a negotiation between commission, council and parliament. Kind of alien to the brits that don’t know checks&balances.

The UK was in a beleaguered state, but with joining the EU came stability and modernization. The working week was limited to 48hrs, the minimum vacation was 4 weeks etc.

After Brexit it will fall back to the legal system of an 18th century constitutional monarchy and will have to find its own path of modernization. May has promised to maintain the European standards, but those are merely promises. The ERG will want something else.