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Brexit Wars 3

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lse:lloy
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#20955

JW,

There’s one option: the so-called nuclear one. If still no deal by 19th October & Johnson still absolutely refuses to sign the mandatory Brexit extension, as he’s repeatedly pledged not to, he could ask Tory MPs to vote for no-confidence in his own government. Unprecedented indeed, but we live in unprecedented times. That probably gets him his snap GE &, in the ensuing chaos, a possible small majority win riding on a tidal wave of Brexit populism. - Regards.


#20956

Fynne -hi,
Good advice m8.
If they want independence, good - if they want to make sure give us all a vote so us English can vote them out PDQ.
If they want to join the EU - good, the Germans can then start subsidising them - not me.
ATB
JAR


#20957

Maybe Theresa May tried to boycott the honours list but somebody misunderstood her intentions!! :wink:


#20958

It takes 25 (??) days from the announcement of a GE to when it can be held…I’m not sure it can be held any quicker. To hold an election before the end of October it would have to be announced in the next few weeks…seems unlikely.

I suppose BoJo could resign as PM but presumably the Tories could just choose another leader. Because Parliament is prorogued BoJo’s options are limited.

BoJo seems to have painted himself into a corner and then shot himself in the foot (for good measure).


#20959

Yes exactly.

Given that Parliament isn’t sitting… it is shut… then how can a vote be held until they return? Then add on your (correct) 25 days…

Also, I’m not convinced they would get a majority… for the same reasons that a rough coalition have been stopping a GE thus far.


#20960

Oilovlam & JW,

I’m only the messenger. According to one leading Tory, he could call it soon after Parliament resumes. The opposition would have 14 days to form a government. The key point being, that would cause just enough disruption to render the asking for a Brexit extension unlikely. Whilst a GE may well take longer, the ulterior motive of Johnson holding a no-confidence vote in his own government could well achieve the Brexiteers main goal. Quote from link seems clear enough:

"Nigel Evans, a Conservative backbencher and supporter of Johnson, said the prime minister was more likely to call for a vote of no confidence in his own government or try to force an election via another means than go to Brussels to ask for an article 50 extension.

The joint executive secretary of the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs told the Today programme: “I cannot see under the current circumstances Boris Johnson going to Brussels and asking for that extension.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/09/boris-johnson-to-prorogue-parliament-on-monday-night


#20961

Become? With Isle of Man, the channel islands, Caymans, British Virgin Islands… it is already.


#20962

Yes, the Tory Government could call No Confidence in themselves but yesterday they got 293 MPs to vote for a General Election… I therefore assume the Opposition would get more than 293 votes countering that (rather than loads of abstentions) if it was tried again.


#20963

The ‘leading’ Tory (Nigel Evans??!!) was suggesting a mechanism to avoid having to ‘legally’ write the extension letter but not how to force an October GE (IMO).

Having a no-confidence vote would presumably necessitate that Tory ‘rebels’ and the anti-‘No’ deal coalition agree to form a Unity government…with a Unity choice as PM (which we have discussed before). The first action of any Unity government would be to ask for the extension. If a Unity government couldn’t get support then ‘presumably’ it would mean ‘No’ deal by default…unless Parliament found another way of avoiding it. The resulting GE would be held in November.


#20964

A No-confidence vote requires a simple majority to pass (not the 2/3 of MP’s under the FTPA). I would have thought that it would be absurd for any Labour party to vote in support of a Tory government that was voting against itself…but I guess these are crazy times!!


#20965

Yes, I see the difference but if the Tories are going to vote against themselves… then why wouldn’t the Opposition vote for them?

They could easily get 300+ votes to defeat the Tories.


#20966

shows how ridiculous the whole UK system is now when a Gov is talking about a vote of no confidence in itself …
monty python like Brexit


#20967

become was wrong word should have been STAY as they now have the ATAD in law.
UK has more hidden tax havens than any country in the world and why leaving the EU and dodging these laws is so important to our billionaire Tory backers and why the ERG is willing to risk everything including destroying the tories


#20968

Indeed. Hopefully a few more people have got to realise what little say and power they actually have in the UK… as they take back control.


#20969

Oilovlam,

I guess my point is that as long as it was called in October, damage seems done. Brexit probably wins. Certainly Johnson & the ERG still seem fairly chipper that they may yet win this battle.

As for exact dates of a GE, as I said I’m only the messenger. This from the BBC tonight, quote: “But if nothing resolved after 14 days, a GE is triggered automatically”. So GE campaigning would start fairly quickly, even if the actual GE was held in November. That would probably lead to Brexit by default. - GL.

That quote in full: "High-risk options - There is a third, extremely high-risk option. If the government was absolutely determined to hold an early election it could, in theory, call a vote of no confidence in itself.

If it chose to do this, MPs would have to decide whether they want the current government to continue.

If such a vote passes, opposition parties would be allowed two weeks to come together to try to form an alternative government. If this happened, Mr Johnson would be expected to resign and a new prime minister could request a further Brexit delay to prevent a no-deal outcome.

But, if nothing is resolved after 14 days, a general election is automatically triggered.

However, this would be a high stakes strategy, as it completely relies on opposition parties failing to form an alternative government."


#20970

I’m not sure what you mean by ‘Brexit probably wins’!

Are you suggesting that there will be a ‘No’ deal Brexit because a GE was ‘called’ in October (with the voting date in November)?..but I’m not sure that is certain. It would mean that the opposition parties (Including Tory rebels) hadn’t been able to form a Unity government.


#20971

Oilovlam,

I’m saying that if this Tory government goes mid-October & we fail to see a Unity government replace it, then we’re in a GE campaign during critical dates in October. During a GE campaign, what’s to stop Johnson & the ERG getting their objective of UK leaving by default on 31/10?

Isn’t that the main reason why the opposition refused to support a GE in October? General mistrust that Johnson, swayed by the ERG, wouldn’t change & delay the date.

Harking back to my previous point: Don’t forget the relevance of the government’s Queen’s Speech on 14th October. Because Johnson has no majority, he could easily lose that. I believe such a decisive loss also triggers an automatic no-confidence vote in the government.

My main point is that the risk of a default hard Brexit still seems very real. I imagine I won’t be the only one who’s noted that some in the ERG remain extremely confident & smug about still winning the day.

If Johnson’s government goes, can the opposition even unite behind Jeremy Corbyn? I sincerely hope so, but that still remains most uncertain.

So the battle of Brexit seems by no means over & done with for any one side. Not by a long way. We may well avoid a hard Brexit (one hopes). OTOH, to me that seems by no means 100% certain. - Regards.


#20972

There’s the crux of the problem. The answer is NO!!

Tory rebels will never vote for a government (even a temporary Unity government) led by Corbyn…didn’t Grieve (edit: It was Hammond) say he would rather boil his head only last week. Without the Tory rebels there is no majority for a Unity government.

The question is whether Corbyn’s ego will allow a Unity candidate to become PM of a temporary government…considering he has said that he will do everything possible to prevent ‘No’ deal then he should step aside…but this is Jeremy we are talking about…he has a substantial ego I suspect (perhaps even on a par with BoJo).


#20973

Sky News is reporting that the Brexit negotiations in Brussels are ‘seriously’ looking at an all Ireland Backstop (as discussed on here recently)…something that TM dismissed. It could be gameplay by BoJo/Cummings to avoid the accusation the talks are a sham…the DUP are keeping remarkably calm (which is unusual for them).


#20974

No mention of discussions till parliament prorogued … now only a day later suddenly there are negotiations!!! amazing
I was mocked (as usual) for suggesting that there would have been people talking… seems likely there was
Shame “parliament” cannot anal ise every last dot and comma for a few weeks :jack_o_lantern: