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Portfolio Positioning For Brexit Vote

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#241

Hi All,

Well I could have bought back into my ETFs today at lower prices but decided to keep my powder dry. US Futures which were ~0.6% UP before I went to the shops are now ~0.5% DOWN. European stocks sinking, FTSE doing OKish at 0.5% down I guess. Really glad I have ZERO US exposure right now…

ATB

Pref


#242

Hi Prefinvestor,

Best wishes to you and your family for Christmas and the New Year.

Things aren’t ending well for the makets in 2018 but let us hope that 2019 brings us some success and I hope that Brexit will somehow unify all the conflicting hopes and wishes and bring the country together and somehow make it a successful year for everybody whatever outcome they prefer for themselves.

Best regards

TJ


#243

Hi @trader_jack, Good to see that you’ve found a working internet connection in NI (I assume ?). Just come back from my regular walk to the pub which was very pleasant today, quite bright and not too cold. Planning to try and moderate my Xmas food consumption this year, but sometimes that’s not so easy when eating with family. I’ve been on a major diet since May and have lost about 10Kgs and really don’t want to put it all back on again over Xmas, but it’s easily done.

Yes US markets are in meltdown and taking everything else down with them. But it’s providing me with some trading opportunities so I’m not complaining.

Would be nice to feel that the country could all come together behind some form of brexit. Really not sure how it’s possible given the diametrically opposite positions of that various protagonists but we can hope I guess.

All the best to you and your family. Have a good Xmas.

Pref


#244

Hi All,

Well truly amazing bounce in US markets, a 5% gain in a day must be some kind of record I don’t know. Most other markets up a lot in consequence ASX 200 up ~1.8%, Nikkei ~3.8% but Hang Seng and Chinese stocks actually ended down ~0.5%. Closer to home the FTSE looks set for a 1.5% gain and the STOXX 50 over 2.7% according to IG.

As usual a pretty crazy one day move out of nowhere IMV but that’s US markets for you. Whether it’s a dead cat bounce or the start of a major recovery is too early to say. I note that US futures are down 0.2-0.5% right now which isn’t surprising I guess after such a huge one day move.

My take is that market risks remain much as they were before Xmas and here in the UK we still have the brexit vote to come early in jan. Personally I shall continue to watch and wait and won’t be buying back in unless I can do so at levels roughly equivalent to where I sold.

Interesting times !.

ATB

Pref


#245

The last one day move of over 4.95% came in 2009. I think I counted about 23 moves of that size since 1929.

Bear markets not start with 20% corrections. They start when trendlines are broken. 2300 was the S&P trend line.


#246

HI @macbonzo,

Yes I had been watching the S&P getting closer to the 2300 level as per a previous post from you regarding that being the likely next stop. Be interesting to see what happens at the US open today now.

I had previously sold about a 1/3rd of my portfolio just in case there was a big dip in the markets, was beginning to think that was a wrong move but still not sure TBH. I have set a couple of limit orders to buy back lower and will see how those get on. Everything just sliding down ATM it appears to me, that may accelerate if the US opens lower and goes lower still, in which case I shall cancel my limit orders and sit back and watch.

ATB

Pref


#247

You have accomplished your main goal of taking risk off. Well done. As far as reinvesting is concerned, I think buying at 20% down is a great entry point. As you know, nobody calls tops and bottoms, so you have to accept that you are well ahead of the “buy to hold” crowd.

I know this is difficult for most people, but, disengaging with news is important. If you see these moves more in terms of “harmonics” (predicable movements) you will see the market has a symmetry to it. In musical terms we have had had 8 years of Puccini’s Nessum Dorma, and now we have Rossini’s William Tell overture.


#249

My feeling is I would be much more inclined to buy it, at this level. I don’t expect to see the US market going much lower and I think all the Brexit outcomes are factored in.

That said. I would like too see serious price absorption at this level - so all the sell orders being filled followed by a demand for shares at higher prices.

On an economic point of view, I expect to see significant falls in house values and more pressures on retailers


#250

I think you’ll find that will be lost on Pref as he’s more into Gangnam style and the Birdie song.


#251

Not into music of any flavour really…sad but true.

Pref


#252

Hi All,

Well I bought back into 3 of my dividend ETFs yesterday PM each at about a 1-2% lower price than when I sold, spent about half of the cash I was holding back. They were slightly down by close of business UK time and watching US Markets after that I thought it was going to be much worse, then there was that major turnaround in US Markets near close of play and everything ended up positive. FTSE and Europe have followed suit so am expecting my buys to be in the green this morning.

US Futures looking slightly down ATM after a turbulent few days. Planning to watch and wait a bit more before deploying the rest of my cash in my target ETFs (SEDY and IAPD) but will buy if I think the price is right.

ATB

Pref


#253

Hi All,

Well selling all my ETFs (of which I have since bought back around half) is looking like being pretty much a capital neutral deal after Fridays big bounce. My newly purchased ETFs have a made some useful gains, but the previous holdings would have done almost as well. Income / yield has improved a bit through slightly larger holdings at a lower entry point.

I’m still waiting to buyback into SEDY and IAPD ATM and if I have to pay a price premium for those then I might lose a small amount on the deal. Watching / waiting for any opportunity that might present itself on these ETFs.

All said and done though THE major purpose of the transaction was to take risk off the table at a time when I thought we might be looking at a significant drop. Thats still a possibility of course (eg brexit vote still to come) but there have now been many weeks for investors to price that in so I suspect that further movement are likely to be more subdued ???. Could be wrong as always though - pure guesswork. US markets have clearly been the main driver of late IMV and I am hoping that we will start to see signs of more stability there - though clearly there are still many worries eg trade war, rates, government shutdown, trump antics etc.

Anyone wanting to buy LLOY could have done so at 49.x this week. I note that Regardless did exactly that, well done to him (not that I want any I dont). SP now recovered above 51 after Fridays bounce - looking at IG.com it would seem that only one FTSE 100 share was down that day.

ATB

Pref


#254

I was upset my 15k buy limit at 49.75 was not filled Friday as I watched live and it was reached prices lower like 49.72 for a short while.

As for investors pricing Brexit vote in, the result is never fully priced in in advance in my opinion. Especially as no deal is firmly on the table now.

For me, I hope the deal is still voted down and there are no cheeky late amendments, at that point, I’m going to gamble and buy on the drop.


#255

Hi @Swamp_Cat,

Well that’s limit orders for you. Was that the bid or the offer price you were looking at though ?.

I have had that experience as well though, sitting there with a limit order active and you find that you can do a trade manually at a lower price ! Aaaaaargh. You just have to be quick and cancel the limit order and do the trade manually I think. I guess provided that you haven’t got enough cash on hand to fund both orders then you could cancel the limit order later as if they tried to execute it and you didn’t have the cash it would just fail. Wouldn’t fancy trying it myself though !!. Be afraid of ending up with twice what I wanted…

I take your point about the impact of the brexit vote never being fully priced in. Especially for particularly brexit sensitive stocks like LLOY. But IMHO you have to weigh that against the risk of being out of the market and losing out on market gains because of that.

Let’s face it the FTSE is 2.x% higher now than a couple of days ago and if you had too much cash on hand on Friday then it has cost you money. I had a significant sum in cash on Friday having held back on 2 buys “just in case”. Wish I’d just placed the orders on Thursday right now, but never mind maybe i will get better prices later. No choice but to try that route now.

And if the vote does cause a dip will It be bigger move down than Fridays move up ?. No way of knowing…

Hope you achieve your objective !

ATB

Pref


#256

What platform were you trading on? If it traded 49.72 and you had a sitting limit order at 49.75 you should have been filled. Unless of course it was a SB outfit


#257

MacB, it was XO. I was watching live trades on ADVFN so lower prices were being hit, although only on trade had enough shares to match my 15k limit order. I was so sure it was my order I screenshotted it.

Pref, I’m not over worried about missing Fridays 2% because I sold at 56.5 so would still buy substantially more shares.


#258

XO? You don’t mean an Uncrossing Trade in the auction?

Forgive me, I am puzzled. Presumably the Offer was less than 49.75. If it had been a FOK or Limit order you would have been filled?


#259

Have you checked the LSE SETS data?


#260

Hi MacB, it was a limit order. XO is the platform x-o.co.uk

My platform when limit orders are placed says in progress. On the morning it switched to pending and back.
It really looked to have initiated.

I don’t know what LSE sets data is, I’m not clued up like yourself. In fact I only use ADVFN for the time it allows before kicking me off but at least it gives reliable data.


#261

Hi @Swamp_Cat,

Well I took a look at the LLOY trades between 08:18 and 08:21 on Dec 28th using MONEYAM and it would certainly appear that both bid and offer prices were indeed lower than 49.75 at that time. However if your broker is anything like mine they do not guarantee that any limit order will ACTUALLY be filled citing a whole host of possible reasons.

But as you were clearly actually sitting there watching it at the time why didn’t you just place your trade as a live market order ?. It would appear that you had both the time and opportunity to do so ?. They are 51+ now so still less than when you sold but not as good as 49.x.

Also I thought from your previous posts that you had sold a lot more than £15,000 worth ?. What was this the first in a planned sequence of buys or something ?.

ATB

Pref