Portfolio Positioning For Brexit Vote



2940 high to 2340 low = 600 points. A 50% Fibonacci retrace takes you to 2640 area. You can reshort in that area, but, for me the best trade was the face ripping long play from 2340.

Here’s the thing, when we got the 10% correction 11 months ago, very few people seemed to know what to do. So I posted the stats on a 20% pullback. It seems very few people have learned.

Bear markets do not start with 20% corrections, they start when trendlines are broken. 2300 was the trendline.

At any market bottom you will have:

  • A jump in VIX
  • A lack of liquidity
  • A plethora of negative news

Brownadder actually posted that he was looking for 35 on VIX to short. That was a near flawless call. The VIX is now 20.


Hi @macbonzo,

So in simple terms you seem to be saying that you think that the next stop for the S&P is 2640 or 4% above where we are now ?. I have no interest in shorting anything, but would like a better feel for where the market is going. All seems very event driven to me ATM !.




Whats the consensus on UK residential housing.

I still think your investments exposed to residential housing need no restructuring.

Those who said about sitting on Cash -
Its a respectable view.
UK govt backs your cash.
UK govt backs your cash equivalents too, bonds and gold.
Not difficult either.
You can see bonds
And gold from many providers. None preferred.


CHi @brownadder,

Well UK house price growth is almost flat down and prices may actually drop if there’s a nodeal brexit according to this article:-

Personally I don’t like either house builders or REITS ATM because of brexit, that said housebuilders have had a few better days of late I’ve noticed. Parliament vote on brexit possibly a significant factor I feel.




Hi Pref

Dow indeed up, about 200 pts on current session.
I had an early start, traded it long twice, exited for a reasonable profit.

Chance it could give some of the rise back but dont fancy shorting it.

FTSE also up strongly




Hi soi,

That’s good sounds like you’ve done well. I watched the futures open at 23:00 UK time last night and I thought US markets were going to be on the rise again today as the futures were up close to 1% by 23:30. But I woke up this morning and at 06:30 they were almost flat, have moved up slightly in the last half hour. Far East and Australia caught up with fridays gains but the FTSE and Europe are looking flat ATM.

Just waiting for 07:00 now as I don’t know why but markets seem to “wake up” at that time, noticed that over the years. No immediate plans to buy anything today IAPD and SEDY will likely have gained due to Far East and ASX200 gains and FTSE / European markets I want to stay out of due to the brexit vote.

Have made a list of existing holdings I’d like to add to. Many go XD in the next few weeks so ideally I will buy then.




On my January watch list ( shopping list ) …

Quilter PLC
Lloyds ( Averaging down more ??? )
AberdeenStandard life
And maybe, Royal Mail shares


Hi @regardless,

Good to see you diversifying !. You do love your beaten up high yielders don’t you. Wouldn’t be my choices, but each to their own !.

LLOY at ~53.32 today I note…

Good luck with whatever you go with, as always.




Royal Mail big no
Rest i havent a clue



How are you? Have you had any response from the brokerage? You would be up nearly £1000, had they executed. That would make me very angry. You also, I believe, may have actually called the bottom in LLOY.


I think SC contacted them by letter, hence presumably why the delay at this time of year. FWIW, I’ve contacted X-O twice via email only. That was about their brokerage service as they were & still remain an option as a 2nd discount broker for me later on. My current broker is ii. Both times X-O responded within a few hours of receiving my queries. - Cheers.


BrownAdder / Spreadsheet Pref

Royal Mail within 3 months fallen 600p to 280p todays prices paying a whopping 9% yield now

OK I know there was a profit warning recently, with Royal Mail, saying mail postal is falling, but still has its parcel delivery service and will grow with online shopping

anyway this just me thinking out loud :slight_smile:


If Royal Mail relies on those parcel delivery and online shopping then perhaps see those factors in their entirety.

Nearly all shipment, packaging courier services have dived down for mostly lesser dispensable money left per person per month.
Seen the latest Retail figures ?
Online shopping is growing as nearly a monopolistic market.
If Royal Mail isnt with Amazon, which it isnt, where are you getting growth from ?
Shop and Collect Services have gone.

I am happy to short Royal Mail to put things in perspective.

One of us is hugely - not slightly - wrong with Royal Mail.


Of course they did. They want your business. £1000 loss (which I consider it to be) is significant. Hell, I wish I could act on his behalf.


Hi Mac,

Indeed. But my point is that any broker would’ve certainly answered by now, whatever the query, had it been emailed. However, sending letters by post & waiting to receive replies in the same format, especially at this time of year, may well take weeks. - Regards.


Hi MacB and all, so far I have only received a confirmation of receipt letter. I sent my complaint by email and they replied the same way. The new year must be holding things up. In any event, I do not see a positive outcome. I am sure if you were acting on my behalf, you’d be capable of persuing a firmer line of enquiry, let’s just hope you don’t have the same issue for your own trading activities. I am guessing you’ll be trading larger figures.

On a separate note, you mentioned the possible low has been seen for Lloyds. Knowing your software usage and your market knowledge, does that mean you have seen a change in the support and “saturation” (or a similar term was used) at the lower sp levels.

I think you had previously said you were surprised at the lack of support at any price and you’d like to see at least a week of support/buying.


I don’t think their lack of response is a bad thing. It would be easy to attempt to dismiss it with some trite response. I think if they don’t offer you something you should contact the Financial Ombudsman, but, I think you may be pleasantly surprised.

As far as LLOYs is concerned it is 7% off it’s lows which I think puts it ahead of the general market. Bookmap does not cover UK stocks.


Hi Mac,

I reviewed LLOY today and noticed a 6% rise since 27 December. Not bad for anyone who caught the wave. I think that the market is voting on the strength of the fundamentals and also on a hunch that risk of a hard brexit is diminishing. I expect that there will be more volatility to come with this share. MF posted positively on LLOY today and I put the link up on Regardless’ LLOY thread. I think he will eventually do well out of his LLOY investments. Patience is a virtue?

Frog in a tree


Problem is I’ve got £8k penciled in here… that scally wag Broadmoor will not stop posting 46p


When have you ever listened ?