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Portfolio Positioning For Brexit Vote

lse:vod
lse:bta
lse:hsba
lse:lloy

#322

Well today I am son :wink:


#323

You do your own thing, you’re responsible for your own investments.


#324

Hi Frog,

Yes a 6% rise is good I guess, depends on your view of Lloyds future prospects and timescales. Those are pretty good long term I think, not so sure about short term though.

And personally I wouldn’t consider ANY piece on MF to be worth anything much, they publish articles on a lot of stocks that are black one minute and white the next. Hard to believe anything they say IMHO. I never even read anything they produce any more myself.

ATB

Pref


#325

No I am holding out for 46p with lloy you did post this with conviction :wink:


#326

46p or 73p either will be my next entry price.


#327

Good news is I have a watch list


#328

Hi Pref

It is possible that a contributing factor is the fact that at 7.00AM the “spreads” for trading major European indices drops.
In the case of FTSE & CAC ( France ) reduces fro 4 pts to 2pts then down to 1pt at cash open, 8.ooAM
Dax drops from 5pts spread drops from 5pts to 2pts also at 7.00AM.

This with IG.

Some traders might wait for the lower spread plus only just caught up with financial news etc.

ATB

soi


#329

Hi @soi,

That’s interesting, thanks. I have no idea of the reason but just watching how the various indices perform on IG they definitely “wake up” after 07:00.

I was tempted to buy back half of a couple of my ETF holdings yesterday when the FTSE and European markets slipped and US markets looked shaky - around the US open (a couple of my ETFs were only 1% above where I sold).

But I didn’t do it and so I still have a large wedge of cash. Why didn’t I move, well 2-reasons really - the first a purely practical one, we had the grandkids round at the time and I couldn’t really go off and place the orders. And second really I don’t want to buy back into the FTSE and Europe before next weeks brexit vote. US futures are up again now and if there is a us china trade annoouncemrnt today (the last day of the trade talks I think ?) then markets will likely move higher.

So really not sure how to play it right now, if that same opportunity presents itself again I will likely act.

ATB

Pref


#330

Hi @regardless,

Well personally I wouldnt invest in Royal Mail Group for the following reasons:-

  1. The profit warning, these are never a good sign and often indicate the potential for future nasty surprises.
  2. Delivering ordinary mail has to be a shrinking business. Parcels and online shopping yes, but there are many cheaper and more nimble companies doing that. Amazon one amongst that group.
  3. The RMG workforce is heavily unionised making labour and productivity reform more difficult, as I recall inability to hit productivity targets was cited as a contributing reason for the profit warning ?.
  4. JC has threatened to re-nationalise RMG should Labour win a General Election.

Those are just my personal views for what they are worth. You must make your own decision as Im sure you will. You may view things very differently, and probably do.

A high dividend yield is nice, but only if it is sustainable and likely to be maintained - also if the share price drops by more than the dividend then thats a loss as far as I am concerned.

ATB

Pref


#331

Hi All,

Well much regretting selling my ETFs the other day given this major bounce. Further upside looking likely with US futures positive by 0.8% or so ATM. So I have purchased about half of my planned holding in IAPD and SEDY ETFs this morning, chosen these to avoid the effect of the brexit vote AND because the markets where these are invested are mostly closed ATM so any gains in the US or here will likely be reflected there tomorrow.

ATB

Pref


#332

When I look at the exact figures, the low was 2320, so a 50% Fib retrace would be 2620, rather than 2640. At that area, my thesis would be done.


#333

Hi All,

Not sure why but somehow FTSE 6880 feels like the stratosphere !. Just shows how my sentiment has been affected by markets late last year. DOW has had a good 3 day run and at 2574 it still has a way to go to hit macbonzos 2640. I’d be expecting a pullback soon normally but right now who knows ?.

China trade talks have been extended to a 3rd day so presumably something is happening and a big announcement there will cause markets to spike I reckon.

Trump is doing a TV presentation supposedly to lobby the electorate about his border wall (fence, barrier, whatever !) that’s timed for a bit after midnight UK time I think I heard. I wonder if he’ll slip in the odd comment on the trade talks as well !.

My ETF purchases today didn’t do much, but didn’t lose either. Felt I had too much sitting on the sidelines during this big rally. Waiting for 11:00 ATM to see what the ASX200 and us futures are going to do.

ATB

Pref


#334

Hi All,

Well no new news overnight but investors clearly buying in anticipation of some kind of US China trade announcement I suspect. FTSE and STOXX 50 were WAY up overnight, falling back a bit now though. US Futures still up but more subdued than the FTSE/STOXX ATM at about 0.25% up.

What should I do now is the question ?. Should I continue to hold and buy on any drop on the meaningful brexit vote. That still has to form part of my plan I think. Asia/Australian ETFs did well overnight. All markets will likely spike (possibly quite a lot) if there IS any kind of US China trade announcement today, though not likely that this will happen till closer to the US open is my guess.

I have decided that the risk of staying out and missing the pop in the event of a trade announcement is to great. I have set limit orders to buy a half size holding in ZWUK & ZWEU at just about yesterdays closing prices - hoping they will fall back to those. That leaves just about half of my cash to deploy on the meaningful vote day, but as the situation there has now been known for many weeks its not clear how big the impact of that will be.

I shall be off with my 2 year old granddaughter this morning going to the park etc. so I shall check the situation again around lunchtime. No watching the markets for me this morning !.

ATB

Pref


#335

Hi All,

“Escalators do not go to the sky…” is a catchy little phrase that I read on some financial website just recently.

It’s a reminder that uptrends (like the current one) do not last forever and that a reversal at some point is inevitable. I am very aware of that myself right now and resisting the urge to get back into the market for fear of missing out on the rally as this could prove costly if I over commit and the market reverses.

My limit orders didnt get filled today and I have just cancelled them as TBH I dont really want to buy at those prices. I will need to get more creative and start put the money into other things than the dividend ETFs that I had targeted, plenty of scope out there.

I did top up on RAVP today, as those prefs I bought a while back are doing really well. GACB bought for ~115 now 125 !. Thank you very much Mr Powell !. Thought Id better buy RAVP before it goes up as well.

Housebuilders had a stonking good day today I note. TW. up 6%+ !. Im guessing thats on the latest moves in Parliament aimed at stopping a No Deal Brexit ?. Also SSE back from the dead @1124 !. No plans to invest in any of those myself btw. But previous favorites of mine.

Interesting times.

ATB

Pref


#336

Having sold at 56.5 I think, bought a chunk of circa 40% at 53.5 and now having circa 55% cash that has missed the low (took some cash withdrawals).

I am at strong risk of not getting in lower than I sold and that would be totally sickening considering the opportunities I’ve missed.


#337

Hi @swamp_cat,

Well I think I did point out that holding out to try and buy at the perfect low price meant that you ran the risk of the opportunities passing you by. All the more reason to pursue your limit order claim.

I am in a similar boat to you having sold my ETFs on the day of the Apple price crash and so still have a lot of cash on hand. The markets have rallied continuously since…aaaargh !

But there is still hope for a price drop on the day of the meaningful vote, though of course it might be that this event is largely priced in by now… ?. Let’s hope not !.

ATB

Pref


#338

If it was voted through… ie. if the May Deal is actually voted for come the 15th… are you anticipating that the UK market will go up?


#339

Being totally honest @j_westlock I’m really not sure

The FTSE has risen about 3.5% over the last 2 weeks on the basis of well, nothing much really. The promise of a US China trade deal that hasn’t materialised ?. So would the FTSE rally some more if TMs deal get voted through, maybe a little but not much I reckon.

But let’s face it that’s not likely to happen is it ?. And a no deal brexit is less likely then it was. However the totally anarchic state that we will be left in after the deal is voted down on Tuesday will, I strongly suspect, still be worth a drop in the FTSE.

Soon see won’t we.

ATB

Pref


#340

Surely the market had discounted the news before the actuality. So we corrected 20% THEN got the AAPL news. My point is it is futile trying to use news as an investment timing tool, because, markets work on harmonic rotations rather than news.


#341

5 day DOW winning streak. Escalators don’t go to the sky…

ATB

Pref