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Portfolio Positioning For Brexit Vote

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#161

Trying to do copy and paste on phone and just not working. Look at cboe/futures

VXF19 is at $19.79 with vol 165k. The front monthly contract is Dec exp 17/12

So there are quarterly expiry futures (March, June, Sept, Dec), but the weekly ones were introduced in 2014


#162

US recovered well. Does that mean we’ll be up tomorrow, probably.


#163

As I said earlier. If you are 60+ points down on S&P, wait for a 30 min engulfing bar, not 5, 15 mins, then get long at the close of the bar. Stop placed on LOD.

Main thing trade the process, don’t pay attention to news. Play the stats


#164

Hi @swamp_cat, Seems likely IG has the FTSE up 1.6% and the STOXX 50 up 1.3% at the US close. Waiting for 23:00 for the futures markets to re-open to see if the uptrend continues.

Really not sure how much of today’s action was brexit related and how much due to the US China trade situation and the Chinese CFO being arrested.

Personally I won’t be sorry if it does bounce as the losses in the stuff I didn’t sell are mounting up !. Only got about 10% cash left now as well so the sooner it’s all over the better as far as I am concerned. I confess after the 3 defeats in Parliament and TM losing control of what happens if the deal is voted down (which i take to mean no “no deal” brexit) then I was starting the think that the vote might be a non-event. Then today came along.

Soon see…

ATB

Pref


#165

Hi JD, J_W & macb.

Thanks for your answers, appreciated.

Jack yes correct, checked up, can rollover in the manner you describe.

I did not know which of the various VIX options I had opened, checked the IG position info, expiry was 19/12 rather than the 17/12 I had wrongly assumed.

So, looking at the list provided by JW I had VXZ8. ( must be IG s default.)

Only other option available with IG seems to be VXF9, the second on the list.
Cannot get a price on the others.

Anyway, got lucky, had placed an ambitious 19.98 auto limit which got filled late yesterday.

Happy as I think that the best result I have had on the VIX.

Brutal day with other positions though.

ATB & GL

soi


#166

Hi

Sorry I forgot to apologise to Pref for going perhaps a bit O/T on his topic.

So back on topic, it is interesting to note that 2 of various companies Pref had highlighted as sells and acted on I notice that LGEN & SLA were amongst yesterdays biggest larger cap fallers.

Good call.

I have a long on SLA, thought the fall had been overdone, was 2 pts up, nearly closed but was trying for 5.
As at yesterday s market close that now 15 pts down.

Tricky markets.

ATB

soi


#167

Hi @soi,

Hey as long as your talking about investing and not talking endlessly about brexit and politics I am not bothered. Dont want to spawn another topic like Brexit Wars, fine for those who want to talk about that stuff - but that’s not me.

Well bit of a bounce today which is good. In the heat of the carnage yesterday I bought half of my target holding of AV., LGEN & HFEL. Figured I would take that price when it was available but leave the other half just in case prices drop some more. Of course if the market drifts higher now on the back of political developments I might come to regret not buying everything I wanted at those prices. But I figured that we still have the day of the vote to come though. However I hear mutterings on the news today that it might get delayed. I do hope not both from an investing perspective AND because I do think that the country urgently needs to get a resolution on brexit, and delaying the vote wont do that.

Well as I end this note the FTSE is up 1.7% (08:31 on 7/12), not quite sure what I am hoping for really given the need to buy the rest of my targets. Am thinking on that, think that if the stocks rise by more than a given percentage I might just have to buy anyway or risk losing the opportunity.

ATB

Pref


#168

Hi @Swamp_Cat,

Well LLOY still at 55.01 as I write this, are you still holding off till the day of the vote to buyback ?. Heard on the news today that TM might delay it. That would not be good.

Markets recovering somewhat today and am wondering what to do about the rest of my planned buys, particularly AV. & LGEN. Bought half of what I wanted yesterday but left the other had just in case prices dropped more. Given the major drop they made on referendum day I am inclined to leave buying these to the day of the vote. But by then it may be clear that all we are going to get is a soft brexit in which case I suspect that a failed vote might not do a lot to the markets. Cant be sure obviously, but that’s my personal theory.

Not sorry to see a bit of a recovery TBH. Yesterday was a brutal day for the old portfolio !.

ATB

Pref


#169

Hi Pref

Thanks.

May I ask what buy price you got for HFEL pls?

I like the company, think it is a good choice for LT. Excellent management, nice yield.

I am looking to buy back in.

ATB

soi


#170

Hi @soi,

Well I bought some yesterday at 335.5 and just bought the other half this morning at 337.5. I see that Money AM has the bid/offer spread at 335/340 right now. Actually if you use that and press the T icon it will display all of todays trades, which is quite useful sometimes, see example below:-

Anyway I figured that if the £ drops then the price of these will rise so I should buy the other half now rather than wait. Of course its just possible that the vote might go the other way and the £ rise instead, but its not what Im expecting.

ATB

Pref


#171

Hi Pref, yes still on the sidelines & still not sure about my re-entry point.

I had considered getting all-in straight after D day but politicians are sprightly litte critters and can catch you off guard at any time.
I may have to go for buying in dribs n drabs.

As I see it, no-deal Brexit is still a possibility. Not so many want it but it’s there.


#172

US futures are down on non farm payrolls pref, if it proves to be the case when they are released, it may pull things in UK down too on slowdown fears? Could that be the case dealers?


#173

Swamp…Its ok to sit this out, Anything other than that is Gambling imho, Cash is King for a reason.


#174

S_C

Do not go all in.

Split your buys, dribs and drabs as you say.

It is almost impossible to get an initial entry/buy correct.

Always hold some cash back.

Slowly does it.

My genuine belief.

ATB

soi


#175

I agree. I don’t actually think Brexit is going to be the driver, here, rather what I would pay attention to is the US market. I think we could break the years low andr hit 2300.

House prices are coming off, FANGS are well off and the Chinese trade deal will take years to resolve.

Look at the big picture. Nobody cares about Brexit (except the British)


#176

No experience with doing this before, but buying incrementally is what I decided to do in the end. I had about 15 things I wanted to buy and I quickly decided that there was no way I could do that all in one go at the same time. So when I saw what I thought was an acceptable target then I bought. In some cases I only bought half as many as I really want just in case the price drops and I can then buy the other half cheaper - may not work out that way of course !.

Depends what your objectives are I guess, but being determined to get absolutely the best price could end up with you missing the boat. My objective is simply to end up with more of the investments that I want at lower prices than I had before - I figure that that should deliver a useful gain at the end of the day.

Completely a personal choice though I quite accept.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

Pref


#177

Non Farms 155K exp 198K

Pretty big miss


#178

MacB, if you look at the reason US bounced back yesterday it was an easing of monetary policy. Doesn’t that imply the fed knows things are slowing?


#179

US markets will likely respond positively as this as it adds further fuel to the case for not raising rates…


#180

Oil is flying after OPECs meeting