eyeQ: Intertek, Shell, Merck, Standard Chartered

“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ

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This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 3 April 2026.

Intertek

Intertek Group (LSE:ITRK)’s results day on 3 March made for uncomfortable viewing. The stock dropped from 4,741p to 3,882p in a single session despite what were, on paper, genuinely strong full-year numbers - record revenue, a tenth consecutive year of double-digit earnings per share (EPS) growth, and 2026 guidance that management described with confidence. The market had simply priced in too much.

What makes eyeQ’s picture more interesting is that the macro model fell even further than the stock. The big-picture economy now drives 68% of Intertek’s price moves, and on that basis the world got materially less supportive for this stock throughout March.

Spot price has not kept pace with that deterioration. At 3,736p today against a model value of 3,554p, Intertek sits almost 5% above where macro conditions say it should trade. That gap is not wide enough to fire a formal bearish signal, but it is a number that hasn’t closed since the sell-off.

For now, the macro message is simple: the bottom-up story may be intact, but the broader backdrop has moved against this stock, and the price has not fully reflected that yet.

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 3 April 2026.

Merck

No stock in this week’s international table carries heavier macro credentials than Merck & Co Inc (NYSE:MRK). The big-picture economy explains 88% of its price moves - the highest reading of any name on the list - and eyeQ’s model value has been trending higher.

The stock, though, has more than kept pace, sitting around 4.6% above our $115.26 fair value at the current price of roughly $120.

Washington’s threat of up to 100% tariffs on certain drugmakers is the headline risk hanging over the whole sector right now. Merck appears to have navigated the immediate danger, reportedly securing a reprieve in exchange for commitments on domestic manufacturing. But the broader uncertainty hasn’t gone away, and with Q1 earnings due on 30 April, the next few weeks will test whether the company’s macro tailwinds can hold.

The gap is not yet at formal signal territory, but the combination of very high macro sensitivity and a stock trading above fair value in a volatile policy environment makes this one to watch carefully.