ii view: JP Morgan trading bounty overshadowed by outlook caution
Shares in this US banking giant rose by just over a third in 2025 but have fallen by around 3% so far in 2026. We assess prospects.
14th April 2026 16:27
by Keith Bowman from interactive investor
First-quarter results to the 31 March
- Revenue up 10% to $50.54 billion
- Earnings per share up 17% to $5.94
- Quarterly dividend of $1.50 per share, unchanged from Q4
Chief executive Jamie Dimon said: “Performance was strong across our businesses. The US economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy. Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment and the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases.
“At the same time, there is an increasingly complex set of risks - such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and they reinforce why we prepare the firm for a wide range of environments.”
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ii round-up:
JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) today reported revenues and earnings beating Wall Street forecasts although lowered expected full-year net interest income against the uncertain backdrop of a war in the Middle East.
Record first-quarter markets related revenues helped drive total revenues up 10% from a year ago to $50.54 billion (£37 billion). Adjusted earnings of $5.94 per share improved 17% from Q1 2025. Analysts had expected outcomes of $49.2 billion and $5.45 per share respectively. Expected full-year 2026 net interest income of $103 billion is down from management’s prior $104.5 billion estimate.
Shares in the Dow Jones company fell 1% in post-results US trading having come into these latest numbers up around a third over the last year. That’s similar to rival Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) and ahead of a near one-fifth gain for the Dow Jones index itself over that time.
JP Morgan operates via the three divisions of Commercial and Investment Banking (CIB), Consumer and Community Banking (CCB), and Asset Wealth Management (AWM).
Given the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, increased client activity across equity markets and raised demand for commodity, currency and emerging market trading all generated record markets-related revenues of $11.6 billion, pushing CIB divisional profits up 30% to $9 billion.
Higher revolving balances for the group’s card services business as well as higher auto operating lease income drove profits for the more traditional banking or CCB division up 12% to $5 billion.
A 16% rise in assets under management from a year ago to $4.8 trillion pushed AWM related profits up 12% to $1.8 billion.
A quarterly dividend payment of $1.50 per share, and payable to eligible shareholders on 30 April, is unchanged from the prior quarter. Second-quarter results are scheduled for 14 July.
ii view:
Formed in the year 2000 via the merger of JP Morgan and Chase Manhattan, the bank today employs more than 300,000 people. Geographically, North America generated most of the revenue during 2025 at 77%. That was followed by the combined Europe, Middle East and Africa regions at 13%, Asia Pacific 8%, and Latin America and the Caribbean the balance of 2%. JP Morgan rivals include Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and even UK bank and former buyer of Lehman Brothers’ assets, Barclays (LSE:BARC).
For investors, higher energy costs following the war in the Middle East, now pressuring consumer disposable incomes, may slow economic activity and borrowing demand globally going forward. A full trade deal between the US and China has yet to be agreed, with a poor deal potentially bad for US companies and their banks. An estimated price to net value of around 2.3 times sits comfortably above many rivals, suggesting the shares are not obviously cheap, while plans for an eventual replacement of CEO Jamie Dimon have yet to be made.
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To the upside, the benefits of a diversified business model have regularly seen strong conditions for one division countering challenges at another. The bank has no direct business in China. JP Morgan’s finances remain robust given a capital cushion or CET1 ratio of 14.3%, while consecutive annual dividend increases for more than 10 years and an estimated forward yield of close to 2% are not to be ignored.
For now, and despite ongoing risks, this bellwether of the US economy continues to justify its place in many already diversified investor portfolios.
Positives:
- Business diversity
- Robust balance sheet
Negatives:
- Economic outlook uncertainty
- Heightened wage costs
The average rating of stock market analysts:
Strong hold
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