Insider: directors pounce after software stock slump

Last week’s software sector sell-off provided opportunities to buy an ‘underappreciated AI beneficiary’ and an owner of unquoted tech companies, writes City writer Graeme Evans.

9th February 2026 08:14

by Graeme Evans from interactive investor

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AI disruption fears have been countered by the outgoing chair of Experian (LSE:EXPN) after he spent £41,000 topping up his stake at the cheapest price in more than two years.

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Mike Rogers made his investment even though he is due to end his nine-year stint on the board once the FTSE 100-listed financial data and analytics firm holds its AGM in July.

The former LV= boss, who has been chair of Experian since July 2019, bought his latest shares on Wednesday in the midst of a rout for AI-exposed data and software companies.

The selling, which also impacted RELX (LSE:REL), Sage Group (The) (LSE:SGE), London Stock Exchange Group (LSE:LSEG) and Rightmove (LSE:RMV), followed Anthropic’s launch of a new AI automation tool for legal work.

The broader implications for industry pricing power and competitive standing deepened the jitters that had caused Experian to rank among the FTSE 100’s worst performers of 2025.

A weaker dollar and October’s disclosure of plans by US-based Fair Isaac Corporation to sell its credit scores directly to mortgage lenders and resellers have weighed on its share price performance, as well as the fears of disruption from AI and open banking.

The selling has continued even though third-quarter results on 21 January showed organic revenues growth of 8%, including a 10% advance in the biggest market of North America.

Chief executive Brian Cassin reiterated full-year expectations and said Experian continued to enjoy strong momentum as it leveraged its proprietary data assets and deep expertise.

The shares are down a fifth since that update and ended last week at 2,524p, which is the lowest level since October 2023. Rogers bought his shares at a price of 2,556p.

Panmure Liberum highlighted a target price of 4,450p following the Q3 results, noting that an enterprise value multiple of 13 times earnings was about 15% below the 10-year average.

It expects earnings per share growth of 15% in the current year and 12% in 2026/27.

The bank added last month: “Experian has a very big moat. It is a leader in the use of open banking to source data from consumers and the provision of platform-based technology (Ascend) which incorporates machine learning and agentic solutions.

“This supports the ambition to grow high single-digit over the medium term, with rising margins which should benefit from increasing automation.”

Bank of America described Experian as an underappreciated AI beneficiary as it highlighted a price target of 4,600p following the update.

It added: “We see investor concerns about AI as unjustified owing to the proprietary nature of Experian's data, including differentiated consumer-permission data.

“The company is also successfully expanding its workflow capabilities beyond data analytics, pushing deeper into decisioning and fraud detection software solutions and pivoting into a more profitable software-as-a-service model.”

Experian is the second-largest constituent of Finsbury Growth & Income Ord (LSE:FGT) trust, alongside the other top five holdings of Sage, London Stock Exchange and Relx.

Portfolio manager Nick Train reportedly said after last week’s sell-off that these companies were innovating and, crucially, “growing more quickly as a result of their successful innovations”.

He pointed out that Experian is less reliant on cyclical credit volumes and more driven by the sale of increasingly sophisticated software products which are firmly embedded in their customers’ workflows.

London Stock Exchange and Relx are in their closed periods ahead of results on 26 February and next Thursday respectively, meaning insiders are not able to buy shares.

Exploiting a valuation gap

A £100,000 spending spree by five directors of FTSE 250-listed HgCapital Trust Ord (LSE:HGT) has backed up their collective view that shares are “significant value” following a slump in software valuations.

The buying was led by chair Jim Strang, whose £42,250 investment at a price of 427p took place on Friday at a big discount to Hg’s estimated year-end net asset value of 562p per share.

HgTrust provides investors with a listed vehicle to invest in a portfolio of unquoted technology companies in Europe.

The valuation gap widened by the most of any trust in last week’s ii Discount Delver as fears over AI’s impact on the software industry and an ongoing rotation into hardware combined to leave the private equity fund’s shares down by 20% this year.

HgTrust has been particularly hard hit because the turmoil has fuelled speculation over a delay to the initial public offering (IPO) of its Norway-based top holding Visma.

In an update published before a flurry of purchases by non-executive directors, HgTrust said the “seemingly indiscriminate” negative sentiment was in contrast to the strong organic growth and margins of its portfolio companies.

It added that its view remains that AI presents significant opportunities for innovative, product-led, incumbent software companies.

HgTrust points out that it has been investing in software for more than two decades and holds investments or board positions at nearly 60 privately-owned software and services businesses.

It added: “The recent widespread sell-off seen in the sector has been with little distinction made across the many different players in the space and their respective strengths and weaknesses.

“Given the strength of the HgT portfolio, the market positions that portfolio companies enjoy and Hg's skill and experience as a manager, the board believes that the current share price represents significant value.”

The scale of dislocation between share price and the value placed on HgTrust’s assets means the board is considering a number of actions including the use of share buybacks.

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