City view: Glencore, Fresnillo, Endeavour, Pan African Resources
Amid one of the most tumultuous periods for the metals and mining sector, Graeme Evans reveals what one team of analysts thinks of these popular stocks.
5th February 2026 15:31
by Graeme Evans from interactive investor
An upgraded Glencore (LSE:GLEN) price target today featured among the recommendations of a City bank after it said it continued to advocate an overweight position on the mining sector.
The report by Berenberg references the early stages of a mining supercycle, underpinned by a range of different demand drivers and with price moves exacerbated by tight supply.
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The bank typically updates its commodity price forecasts on a quarterly basis but has chosen to do so now after a significant rally from the middle of December to late January.
Some of these price moves were driven by excess market momentum and have been followed by sharp sell-off in commodities over the past week as geopolitical conditions calmed.
Berenberg added: “In periods of meaningful market sell-offs and price correction after fly-up rallies, we are buyers of quality names on weakness.”
Glencore is the bank’s top pick among the diversified miners, which reflects the potential for self-help through its copper production growth targets or from M&A activity.
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A mega-merger with Rio Tinto Ordinary Shares (LSE:RIO) remains a possibility amid reports that the two companies are likely to request more time for talks over the creation of the world’s biggest miner.
Glencore shares have risen by a fifth this year to 495p, which compares with Berenberg’s new price target of 610p after an increase from 480p in today’s report.
The bank also favours Anglo American (LSE:AAL) after lifting its fair value estimate to 4,100p, whereas it has a Hold position on iron ore-focused Rio Tinto.
Industrial commodity prices have rallied over the past few weeks, with copper, uranium, tin, platinum group metals (PGMs) and silver all benefiting from tight inventory levels, no major new supply in the near term and resilient (and rising) demand.
Slower-burn drivers, such as electrification, AI, green transport and robotics, mean Berenberg expects a more gentle demand lift over a longer period than the Chinese supercycle of the early 2000s, which was entirely driven by a thirst for metal to develop the country’s economy.
Berenberg worries about the impact of demand destruction if prices keep rising and result in upward inflationary pressures. But despite recent market developments, the bank thinks that prices for certain commodities can stay sustainably higher for longer.
It has made a number of changes to its price deck, including 16% lift to its estimates for copper and gold prices over 2026-28 alongside 40% for silver and 33% to platinum prices over the same period.
Gold marches to a different drum than the majority of the other commodities, but Berenberg said its bullish thesis on the precious metal continues to hold.
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It highlights elevated geopolitical volatility, market expectations that US interest rates will be pushed lower and challenges to the US dollar’s place as the global reserve currency.
Gold is also likely to be supported by ongoing central bank, investment and retail buying, including as a hedge against inflation.
Among London-listed gold stocks, the bank’s large-cap preference remains Endeavour Mining (LSE:EDV) for its growth and shareholder return upside. It has a price target of 5,500p, which compares with today’s level of 4,056p.
FTSE 250-listed Pan African Resources (LSE:PAF) is flagged for similar reasons, with a price target of 154p.
However, Berenberg downgraded Fresnillo (LSE:FRES) to Hold after an improved operational performance and a material run in the gold and silver price lifted shares by 350% in the past year.
Mexico-based Fresnillo, which is the world’s largest primary miner of silver, peaked at 4,400p last week before a retreat to 3,590p - still 6% higher so far this year.
The bank said: “We continue to advocate for gold and silver exposure at this point of the cycle but we prefer exposure to equities with catalysts or volume growth, or both.
“At this point, we are struggling to see any material volume growth coming from Fresnillo, while on the catalyst front we are expecting a fairly quiet year.”
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In the copper space, the bank flags the volume growth upside of FTSE 250-listed Atalaya Mining Copper SA (LSE:ATYM) based on a price target of 1,270p and Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) after upgrading its estimate to 4,300p.
Other mining names that the bank thinks offer attractive upside are Yellow Cake Ordinary Shares (LSE:YCA) in uranium and Metlen Energy & Metals (LSE:MTLN) for its earnings growth, as well as Ecora Royalties (LSE:ECOR), Griffin Mining Ltd (LSE:GFM), Rainbow Rare Earths Ltd (LSE:RBW), Tharisa (LSE:THS) and Sylvania Platinum Ltd (LSE:SLP).
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