Interactive Investor

eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 8 July 2024

Experts at eyeQ use their artificial intelligence and own smart machine to generate actionable trading signals. Here, they highlight 10 UK shares and 10 overseas stocks either cheap or expensive given current macro conditions.

8th July 2024 11:00

by Huw Roberts from eyeQ

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"Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ

This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10 

Company Macro RelevanceModel ValueFair Value Gap
AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN)70%12737.87p-5.44%
Grainger (LSE:GRI)69%247.22p-2.37%
Kingfisher (LSE:KGF)79%261.73p-1.64%
British Land Co (LSE:BLND)73%647.20p-1.44%
Wetherspoon (J D) (LSE:JDW)67%762.89p-0.85%
BP (LSE:BP.)66%472.37p2.04%
Savills (LSE:SVS)78%1137.58p5.52%
Lloyds Banking Group (LSE:LLOY)67%54.54p6.41%
Playtech (LSE:PTEC)88%469.10p7.29%
Barclays (LSE:BARC)77%200.33p9.17%

Source: eyeQ. Long Term tactical models. Data correct as at 8 July 2024.

Kingfisher

The valuation gap is small but, at 1.6% cheap to eyeQ’s model value, Kingfisher (LSE:KGF) is worth noting.

Firstly, note macro conditions are improving; our model value has risen nearly 6% in the last month.

Secondly, the home improvement company owns stores like B&Q and, as such, could potentially benefit if the UK housing market enjoys a resurgence under a new Labour government.

Astra Zeneca

After rallying strongly in April, UK pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca (LSE:AZN) has done very little. But while the last two months have seen the share price move sideways, eyeQ model value has started to move higher. It’s risen 7.2% so far in July as macro conditions start to improve.

The stock has yet to recognise the change in its macro environment. On eyeQ it sits around 5% cheap to model value, the cheapest it has been since mid-February.

International Top 10

Company Macro RelevanceModel ValueFair Value Gap
Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE:DAL)74%$52.60-14.30%
On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON)67%$42.36-13.89%
Fnac Darty SA (EURONEXT:FNAC)85%€ 34.03-10.14%
Renault SA (EURONEXT:RNO)75%€ 52.59-4.98%
PayPal Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:PYPL)78%$60.53-1.29%
Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC)85%$58.671.60%
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)70%$216.784.22%
Adobe Inc (NASDAQ:ADBE)74%$534.387.60%
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD)83%$156.439.00%
Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C)83%$58.139.21%

Source: eyeQ. Long Term tactical models. Data correct as at 8 July 2024.

These third-party research articles are provided by eyeQ (Quant Insight). interactive investor does not make any representation as to the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information provided, nor do we accept any liability for any losses, costs, liabilities or expenses that may arise directly or indirectly from your use of, or reliance on, the information (except where we have acted negligently, fraudulently or in wilful default in relation to the production or distribution of the information).

The value of your investments may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest.

Equity research is provided for information purposes only. Neither eyeQ (Quant Insight) nor interactive investor have considered your personal circumstances, and the information provided should not be considered a personal recommendation. If you are in any doubt as to the action you should take, please consult an authorised financial adviser. 

Disclosure

We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.

Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.

Details of all recommendations issued by ii during the previous 12-month period can be found here.

ii adheres to a strict code of conduct.  Contributors may hold shares or have other interests in companies included in these portfolios, which could create a conflict of interests. Contributors intending to write about any financial instruments in which they have an interest are required to disclose such interest to ii and in the article itself. ii will at all times consider whether such interest impairs the objectivity of the recommendation.

In addition, individuals involved in the production of investment articles are subject to a personal account dealing restriction, which prevents them from placing a transaction in the specified instrument(s) for a period before and for five working days after such publication. This is to avoid personal interests conflicting with the interests of the recipients of those investment articles.

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