eyeQ: BP, Barclays, UnitedHealth Group, easyJet

“Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance.” eyeQ

• Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary

This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).

A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.

All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.

Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:

Model value

Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.

Model relevance

How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.

Fair Value Gap (FVG)

The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.

Long Term model

This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.

UK Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 26 June 2026.

BP

Crude oil has fallen from over $100/bbl to around $70. That’s weighed on big oil stocks like BP (LSE:BP.) which have had a tough few weeks.

The broader macro picture, however, isn’t as negative. eyeQ model has ticked lower but is showing signs of stabilising around the 540p area. That means the latest fall has taken the stock 13% below macro fair value. That’s a big enough fair value gap to trigger a new bullish signal.

We’d also flag that while the stock obviously wants higher oil prices, it also has positive sensitivity to credit spreads and VIX, the widely watched fear gauge. In other words, BP has some nice defensive properties right now. If credit markets blow up and we get a “risk-off” move, BP will offer a safe haven.

International Top 10

Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 26 June 2026.

UnitedHealth Group

This week’s eyeQ video flags a building opportunity in the US healthcare, biotech and pharmaceutical sector. But that doesn’t mean that every stock in the industry shares the same story.

UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH), for example, looks very different from a macro point of view. After three months of trending higher, macro momentum is potentially stalling. Macro-warranted hit $410 last week but has fallen back to $394 today.

The stock itself has continued to move higher, thus far ignoring macro gravity. That leaves the stock around 8% in macro terms. That’s getting very close to a new bearish signal.

Even without an official signal though, the conclusion is don’t touch UNH. Instead, watch today’s eyeQ video for alternatives.