eyeQ: 10 actionable trading signals for week beginning 12 May 2025
Experts at eyeQ use AI and their own smart machine to generate actionable trading signals. Here, they highlight 10 UK shares and 10 overseas stocks either cheap or expensive given current macro conditions.
12th May 2025 09:51
by Huw Roberts from eyeQ
Our signals are crafted through macro-valuation, trend analysis, and meticulous back-testing. This combination ensures a comprehensive evaluation of an asset's value, market conditions, and historical performance." eyeQ
- Discover: eyeQ analysis explained | eyeQ: our smart machine in action | Glossary
This series of weekly articles uses eyeQ’s smart machine to highlight 10 stocks whose share price trades at either a discount or premium to eyeQ’s Model Value price (where macro conditions say the share 'should' trade).
A minus figure in these tables indicates a share trading below eyeQ’s Model Value, implying they are ‘cheap’ versus macro conditions. A plus figure screens as rich because the current share price is above eyeQ’s Model Value.
All companies must have a model relevance above 65%, which means the macro environment is critical and any valuation signals carry strong weight.
Here are definitions of terms used in the analysis:
Model value
Where our smart machine calculates that any stock market index, single stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) should be priced (the fair value) given the overall macroeconomic environment.
Model relevance
How confident we are in the model value. The higher the number the better! Above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight. Below 65%, we deem that something other than macro is driving the price.
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is. A positive Fair Value Gap means the security is above the model value, which we refer to as “rich”. A negative FVG means that it's cheap. The bigger the FVG, the bigger the dislocation and therefore a better entry level for trades.
Long Term model
This model looks at share prices over the last 12 months, captures the company’s relationship with growth, inflation, currency shifts, central bank policy etc and calculates our key results - model value, model relevance, Fair Value Gap.
UK Top 10
| Company | Macro Relevance | Model Value | Fair Value Gap |
| Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.) | 69% | 141.27p | -20.33% |
| Future (LSE:FUTR) | 70% | 889.7p | -20.07% |
| Savills (LSE:SVS) | 66% | 1073.37p | -10.32% |
| Hammerson (LSE:HMSO) | 77% | 274.99p | -7.84% |
| Diploma (LSE:DPLM) | 79% | 4194.13p | -2.05% |
| Tesco (LSE:TSCO) | 72% | 375.64p | 0.55% |
| Barclays (LSE:BARC) | 69% | 295.51p | 3.74% |
| Sainsbury (J) (LSE:SBRY) | 67% | 266.00p | 3.76% |
| HSBC Holdings (LSE:HSBA) | 71% | 816.61p | 3.84% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group (LSE:IHG) | 74% | 7965.28p | 7.49% |
Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 11 May.
InterContinental Hotels Group
Holiday Inn's owner InterContinental Hotels Group (LSE:IHG) is showing resilience amid weakening global demand.
eyeQ shows macro conditions improved later in April - but this time the bounce in model value looks more meaningful, up 14.5% in the last month. But, once again, the share price has moved ahead of that - the stock sits7.5% above eyeQ model value.
That Valuation Gap isn't big enough to fire a bearish signal, but we can surmise that a fair degree of good news is already in the price. Different travel stock, same conclusion - nothing to do here
International Top 10
| Company | Macro Relevance | Model Value | Fair Value Gap |
| Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY) | 66% | $883.85 | -20.32% |
| Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) | 75% | $224.60 | -13.13% |
| Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) | 69% | $24.77 | -11.16% |
| Marvell Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MRVL) | 76% | $63.79 | -6.93% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd ADR (NYSE:TSM) | 73% | $187.20 | -3.50% |
| Expedia Group Inc (NASDAQ:EXPE) | 67% | $152.84 | 2.44% |
| CrowdStrike Holdings Inc Class A (NASDAQ:CRWD) | 71% | $392.11 | 4.50% |
| Ralph Lauren Corp Class A (NYSE:RL) | 78% | $223.81 | 10.02% |
| Robinhood Markets Inc Class A (NASDAQ:HOOD) | 78% | $47.34 | 13.37% |
| EQT Corp (NYSE:EQT) | 78% | $46.31 | 16.74% |
Source: eyeQ. Long Term strategic models. Data correct as at 11 May.
Expedia
The bellwether for domestic travel demand and consumer discretionary spending, Expedia Group Inc (NASDAQ:EXPE) shares fell over 10% after posting disappointing earnings. After Covid came "revenge travel". Now it increasingly seems the travel industry is heading for its toughest period since lockdowns. Economic uncertainty and the impact from President Trump's tariffs are the issue.
On eyeQ, the macro environment has improved a little after the initial tariff shock. But the bounce in model value has been muted and, if anything the stock, has overshot. It sits slightly (2.44%) above where macro says it should. Nothing to do here.
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Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
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