Share Sleuth: After doubling his money it’s time to sell
Analyst says the re-rating of a company is justified, but its weighting in his portfolio is too big.
27th December 2019 11:15
by Richard Beddard from interactive investor
This companies analyst says the re-rating of a company is justified, but its weighting in his portfolio is too large.
A sudden re-rating of shares in Judges Scientific (LSE:JDG) means Christmas came early for the Share Sleuth portfolio, but also left me with a thorny problem.
I first added shares in Judges Scientific to the Share Sleuth portfolio less than two years ago in March 2018, at a price of £23.20. With uncharacteristic haste, more followed in January 2019 at £24.40. By the end of November, when I reduced the portfolio’s holding, the share price was £53.80. The shares had risen by 120% in 10 months and, due to dividends and a slight rise in price before then, the portfolio’s holding has earned a slightly stronger return.
Disciplined acquirer
My view of Judges Scientific has not changed. It is a disciplined acquirer of small but established businesses that make scientific instruments for universities and industries around the world. The specialised nature of the equipment limits competition, which means the earnings of the companies that it comprises persist and can be used to pay off money borrowed to fund acquisitions, clearing the way for the next ones.
Judges Scientific profits because the cost of borrowing is low and the returns from the companies it buys are high relative to the price it pays. Its continuing success depends both on excellent relationships with its bank and a near two-decade reputation for straight dealing with the private owners of the companies it ultimately buys.
The views of other market participants have changed, though. Revenue and profit growth, and the announcement of a special dividend in November, may have revealed what long-term investors already knew: that the businesses Judges has bought cheaply are good businesses, and once they have paid for themselves they go on earning money for Judges Scientific in perpetuity.
Until December 2019, when it acquired Moorfield Nanotechnology, Judges Scientific had not bought a company outright since 2017, yet its results improved markedly. New acquisitions may be the company’s growth engine, but it is not reliant on them for growth.
The new interest in Judges Scientific means the enterprise is valued at a heady multiple of about 29 times adjusted profit – reducing the appeal of the shares, but not enough to lose faith in their long-term potential. Such is my confidence in the business, I score the shares 6.6 out of 10 despite the high valuation.
Even so, because I added two tranches of the shares and the share price subsequently took off, Judges Scientific was the portfolio’s largest holding, accounting for over £13,000 or 9.2% of its total value.
While I am content to hold some Judges Scientific shares for the long term at its current valuation, I am not comfortable with it being the portfolio’s largest constituent. Redeploying some of the money invested in Judges Scientific into a higher scoring share will both increase the portfolio’s diversification and, hopefully, improve its prospects.
On 27 November, I reduced Share Sleuth’s holding by just under 40% from 252 shares to 159, netting the portfolio £4,993, with the holding value just under £8,500, at 6% of the portfolio.
Next month, there is plenty of money to invest. The most likely candidates remain PZ Cussons (LSE:PZC), a new addition, and Victrex (LSE:VCT), a top-up. Both companies are among the highest scoring of all the companies I follow (see the table in Share Watch). But I restrict myself to one trade a month and there remains another thorny issue: Games Workshop (LSE:GAW). It is too highly rated; and now I have cut Judges Scientific down to size, Games Workshop is the portfolio’s largest holding.
Forging ahead to an all-time high
Judges Scientific cut down to size
| Portfolio | Cost (£) | Value (£) | Return (%) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 9,395 | ||||
| Shares | 140,542 | ||||
| Since 9 September 2009 | 30,000 | 149,937 | 400% | ||
| Companies | Shares | Cost (£) | Value (£) | Return (%) | |
| ALU | Alumasc (LSE:ALU) | 938 | 999 | 854 | -15 |
| ANP | Anpario (LSE:ANP) | 937 | 3,168 | 3,092 | -2 |
| AVON | Avon Rubber (LSE:AVON) | 192 | 2,510 | 3,926 | 56 |
| BMY | Bloomsbury Publishing (LSE:BMY) | 1,256 | 3,274 | 3,567 | 9 |
| CGS | Castings (LSE:CGS) | 1,109 | 3,110 | 4,392 | 41 |
| CHH | Churchill China (LSE:CHH) | 341 | 3,751 | 6,189 | 65 |
| CHRT | Cohort (LSE:CHRT) | 1,600 | 3,747 | 10,736 | 187 |
| DTG | Dart (LSE:DTG) | 456 | 250 | 7,643 | 2,957 |
| DWHT | Dewhurst (LSE:DWHT) | 735 | 2,244 | 7,074 | 215 |
| GAW | Games Workshop (LSE:GAW) | 198 | 568 | 11,444 | 1,915 |
| GDWN | Goodwin (LSE:GDWN) | 266 | 6,646 | 9,629 | 45 |
| HWDN | Howden Joinery (LSE:HWDN) | 748 | 3,228 | 5,007 | 55 |
| JDG | Judges Scientific (LSE:JDG) | 159 | 3,825 | 8,014 | 110 |
| NXT | Next (LSE:NXT) | 45 | 2,199 | 3,278 | 49 |
| PMP | Portmeirion (LSE:PMP) | 349 | 3,212 | 2,426 | -24 |
| QTX | Quartix (LSE:QTX) | 1,085 | 2,798 | 3,667 | 31 |
| RM. | RM (LSE:RM.) | 1,275 | 3,038 | 3,723 | 23 |
| RSW | Renishaw (LSE:RSW) | 92 | 1,739 | 3,612 | 108 |
| SOLI | Solid State (LSE:SOLI) | 1,546 | 4,523 | 9,160 | 103 |
| TET | Treatt (LSE:TET) | 1,222 | 1,734 | 5,719 | 230 |
| TFW | Thorpe (F W) (LSE:TFW) | 2,000 | 2,207 | 6,700 | 204 |
| TRI | Trifast (LSE:TRI) | 2,261 | 3,357 | 4,183 | 25 |
| TSTL | Tristel (LSE:TSTL) | 750 | 268 | 2,715 | 912 |
| VCT | Victrex (LSE:VCT) | 150 | 2,253 | 3,690 | 64 |
| XPP | XP Power (LSE:XPP) | 339 | 6,287 | 10,102 | 61 |
Notes: No new additions. Transaction costs include £10 broker fee, and 0.5% stamp duty where appropriate. Cash earns no interest. Dividends and sale proceeds are credited to the cash balance. £30,000 invested on 9 September 2009 would be worth £149,937 today. £30,000 invested in FTSE All-Share index tracker accumulation units would be worth £68,570 today. Objective: To beat the index tracker handsomely over five-year periods. Source: SharePad, 18 December 2019
These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company's or index name highlighted in the article.
Disclosure
We use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis in forming our view as to the valuation and prospects of an investment. Where relevant we have set out those particular matters we think are important in the above article, but further detail can be found here.
Please note that our article on this investment should not be considered to be a regular publication.
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This article was originally published in our sister magazine Money Observer, which ceased publication in August 2020.
These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
Full performance can be found on the company or index summary page on the interactive investor website. Simply click on the company's or index name highlighted in the article.