Share Sleuth: the noise around AI is giving me brain fog
Adding to one stock was a ‘no-brainer’, says Richard Beddard, who is holding back on three other potential trades amid AI concerns.
11th March 2026 11:03
by Richard Beddard from interactive investor
February started with a minor meltdown in the share prices of companies at risk from advances being made in artificial intelligence (AI). It ended as the conflict with Iran escalated into war.
My objective is to invest in resilient companies, able to ride out shock waves. I don’t pretend the same events will not disrupt businesses. If events generate or bring my attention to risks that I haven’t fully incorporated into the scores, I must change the scores.
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I don’t know what is going to happen next geopolitically, the extent to which AI can upend business models, or whether fear of these things is already evident in lower share prices. But I can determine whether I have sensibly judged the exposure of each share in my Decision Engine, both Share Sleuth portfolio members and candidates for the portfolio, in the light of what I currently know.
Hollywood Bowl: feels like a no-brainer
Despite the turmoil, this month’s trade felt like a no-brainer. I added more shares in Hollywood Bowl Group (LSE:BOWL) to Share Sleuth. The company operates tenpin bowling centres in the UK and Canada.
It was ranked #2 by the Decision Engine after lighting company Thorpe (F W) (LSE:TFW), which was already fully represented in the Share Sleuth portfolio.
I had yet to act on the score I gave Hollywood Bowl in January and there had been no significant news from the company since. Adding to the allure of its high score was the discrepancy between the share’s ideal holding size as determined by the Decision Engine and the size of Share Sleuth’s holding. This was greater than for any other share in the portfolio.
- What would a longer war in the Middle East mean for investors?
- Fund Focus: what the Iran conflict means for your portfolio
Out of an abundance of caution, I prefer not to trade shares more than once since I last scored them. Although I traded Hollywood Bowl as recently as September last year, that was four months before I scored the share.
On Thursday 26 February, I added 2,030 Hollywood Bowl shares to the portfolio’s holding of 1,972 shares.
The actual price, quoted by a broker, was a shade over 263p, which cost Share Sleuth £5,378 after deducting £10 in lieu of fees and nearly £27 in lieu of stamp duty.
Looking ahead: brain fog
While Hollywood Bowl felt like a no-brainer, the alternatives are giving me brain fog because of the noise around AI.
This table shows how I decide which shares to trade. It compares the size of holdings (as a percentage of the total value of the portfolio) and new candidates (0% of its total value) to the ideal sizes calculated by the Decision Engine on 4 March:
company | description | score | ih% | ss% | ih%-% | |
1 | FW Thorpe | Makes lighting systems for commercial, industrial and public settings | 9.7% | 8.1% | 1.6% | |
2 | Hollywood Bowl | Operates tenpin bowling centres | 7.2% | 4.9% | 2.3% | |
3 | James Latham | Distributes imported panel products, timber, and laminates | 7.0% | 5.7% | 1.3% | |
4 | Softcat | Sells software and hardware to businesses and public sector | 6.8% | 3.7% | 3.1% | |
5 | Howden Joinery | Supplies kitchens to small builders | 6.7% | 6.4% | 0.3% | |
6 | Bunzl | Distributes essential everyday items consumed by organisations | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | |
7 | Renew | Maintains and improves road, rail, water, and energy infrastructure | 6.0% | 5.7% | 0.4% | |
8 | Jet2 | Flies people to holiday locations, often on package tours | 6.0% | 4.6% | 1.4% | |
9 | Solid State | Manufactures electronic systems and distributes components | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% | |
10 | Auto Trader | Online marketplace for motor vehicles | 5.7% | 5.7% | ||
11 | Bloomsbury Publishing | Publishes books and educational resources | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.7% | |
12 | Porvair | Manufactures filters and laboratory equipment | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | |
13 | Keystone Law | Operates a network of self-employed lawyers | 5.4% | 5.4% | ||
14 | Judges Scientific | Manufactures scientific instruments | 5.0% | 5.0% | ||
15 | Churchill China | Manufactures tableware for restaurants etc. | 5.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | |
16 | Oxford Instruments | Makes imaging and semiconductor manufacturing systems | 4.7% | 6.2% | -1.5% | |
17 | Advanced Medical Solutions | Manufactures surgical adhesives, sutures and dressings | 4.4% | 1.9% | 2.5% | |
18 | Cake Box | Cake shop franchise and sweet manufacturer | 4.3% | 4.3% | ||
19 | Focusrite | Designs recording equipment, synthesisers and sound systems | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | |
20 | Macfarlane | Distributes and manufactures protective packaging | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | |
21 | YouGov | Surveys public opinion and conducts market research online | 3.9% | 3.9% | ||
22 | Anpario | Manufactures natural animal feed additives | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | |
23 | Volution | Manufacturer of ventilation products | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.1% | |
24 | Games Workshop | Designs, makes and distributes Warhammer. Licenses IP | 3.7% | 5.4% | -1.7% | |
25 | Goodwin | Casts and machines steel and processes minerals for niche markets | 2.9% | 4.0% | -1.1% | |
26 | Cohort | Manufactures/supplies defence tech, training, consultancy | 2.7% | 5.2% | -2.5% | |
27 | Tristel | Manufactures hospital disinfectant | 2.5% | 2.5% | ||
28 | Quartix | Supplies vehicle tracking systems to small fleets | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | |
29 | 4Imprint | Customises and distributes promotional goods | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | |
30 | Renishaw | Makes tools and systems for manufacturers | 2.5% | 4.5% | -2.0% |
Click on a share's score to see a breakdown (scores may have changed due to movements in share price). Key: qual is the share’s score out of 9 for the three quality factors (capabilities, risks, and strategy), price is the price score from -3 to +1, ih% is the suggested ideal holding size as a percentage of the total value of a diversified portfolio, ss% is the actual size of Share Sleuth’s holding, and ih%-% is the difference between ideal and actual sizes.
I consider adding more of a share to the portfolio if its ideal holding size is more than 2.5% (of the portfolio’s total value) greater than the size of the portfolio’s holding.
Now I have added more Hollywood Bowl shares, the next share to qualify for investment is fourth-ranked Softcat (LSE:SCT), then 10th-ranked Autotrader Group (LSE:AUTO), and 13th-ranked Keystone Law Group Ordinary Shares (LSE:KEYS). Only Softcat is already a constituent of Share Sleuth. All three have moved up the table because their share prices have fallen substantially.
Softcat’s share price fell nearly 25% from its peak in early February to its trough on 24th. Auto Trader fell 14% from the month’s peak to a trough on 24 February, and the share price has declined a long way previously. Keystone Law’s share price has declined by about 20% in a month.
All three companies may be disrupted by AI, which makes it easier for organisations to evaluate, buy and configure IT directly; for people to find a car to buy online; and for parties in legal cases to do more of their own legwork (it may also reduce the billable of hours of lawyers they employ).
All three companies are responding, partly by using AI to become more efficient themselves. They may be able to turn AI to their advantage. Before I trade them, though, I intend to re-consider the nature of the AI risk and my confidence in their strategies.
I’m not able to add these shares for now anyway. This month’s addition has mopped up the portfolio’s surplus cash.
Share Sleuth performance
At the close on 4 March, Share Sleuth was worth £211,61, 605% more than the £30,000 of pretend money we started with in September 2009.
The same amount invested in accumulation units of a FTSE All-Share index tracking fund would be worth £113,921, an increase of 280%.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
After dividends paid during the month from Cohort (LSE:CHRT), Hollywood Bowl, Jet2 Ordinary Shares (LSE:JET2) and Solid State (LSE:SOLI), Share Sleuth had £2,992 in cash.
The minimum trade size, 2.5% of the portfolio’s value, is £5,291.
Share Sleuth, 04 Mar 2026 | Cost (£) | Value (£) | Return (%) | ||
Cash (1% of portfolio) | 2,992 | ||||
Current holdings (24 shares) | 208,639 | ||||
Total, and performance since 9 September 2009 | 30,000 | 211,631 | 605 | ||
Benchmark: FTSE All-Share index tracker (acc) | 30,000 | 113,921 | 280 | ||
Companies | Shares | Cost (£) | Value (£) | Return (%) | |
AMS | Advanced Medical Solutions | 1,965 | 4,503 | 3,950 | -12 |
ANP | Anpario | 1,124 | 4,057 | 5,732 | 41 |
BMY | Bloomsbury | 1,882 | 8,354 | 8,949 | 7 |
BNZL | Bunzl | 417 | 9,798 | 9,107 | -7 |
BOWL | Hollywood Bowl | 4,002 | 10,348 | 10,385 | 0 |
CHH | Churchill China | 1,495 | 17,228 | 5,457 | -68 |
CHRT | Cohort | 836 | 6,315 | 10,985 | 74 |
FAN | Volution | 830 | 5,151 | 5,495 | 7 |
FOUR | 4Imprint | 116 | 2,251 | 4,512 | 100 |
GAW | Games Workshop | 66 | 4,116 | 11,444 | 178 |
GDWN | Goodwin | 36 | 871 | 8,784 | 909 |
HWDN | Howden Joinery | 1,476 | 10,371 | 13,166 | 27 |
JET2 | Jet2 | 822 | 5,211 | 9,864 | 89 |
LTHM | James Latham | 1,150 | 14,437 | 12,133 | -16 |
MACF | Macfarlane | 7,689 | 10,011 | 5,244 | -48 |
OXIG | Oxford Instruments | 505 | 10,044 | 13,509 | 34 |
PRV | Porvair | 906 | 4,999 | 6,704 | 34 |
QTX | Quartix | 1,618 | 3,988 | 4,320 | 8 |
RNWH | Renew Holdings | 1,310 | 9,804 | 12,052 | 23 |
RSW | Renishaw | 234 | 6,227 | 9,711 | 56 |
SCT | Softcat | 675 | 9,995 | 7,709 | -23 |
SOLI | Solid State | 5,009 | 6,033 | 8,265 | 37 |
TFW | Thorpe (F W) | 6,153 | 14,861 | 16,921 | 14 |
TUNE | Focusrite | 2,020 | 14,128 | 4,242 | -70 |
Notes
Costs include £10 broker fee, and 0.5% stamp duty where appropriate
Cash earns no interest
Dividends and sale proceeds are credited to the cash balance
Objective: To beat the index tracking fund handsomely over five year periods
Source: ShareScope.
Richard Beddard is a freelance contributor and not a direct employee of interactive investor.
Richard owns all of the shares in the Share Sleuth portfolio.
For more on the Decision Engine and Share Sleuth, please see Richard’s explainer.
Contact Richard Beddard by email: richard@beddard.net or on Twitter: @RichardBeddard
These articles are provided for information purposes only. Occasionally, an opinion about whether to buy or sell a specific investment may be provided by third parties. The content is not intended to be a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy as it is not provided based on an assessment of your investing knowledge and experience, your financial situation or your investment objectives. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest. The investments referred to in this article may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, an investor should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser.
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