My strategy here is very simple. Every one of those coming 5 wells if they strike oil is worth far more than the current share price, so you have back up recovery all the way to the final drill.
Wild Horse-1 is massive but very high risk. If it comes off this is going to over 100p in a flash, if it fails and with winter this is going to say 3.5p before recovering next April when drilling season starts and Fox-1 is spudding. So hold the shares over winter and you will see 8p or more in Spring ahead of spudding.
Fox-1 is massive too, but with much reduced risk, the 3D bright spot and local live oil in coring and high correlation of the coring result to seismic gives great confidence.
The good thing here as well is the SL-1 and WH-1 and Fox-1 are all in different basins so there is no relation of any result to any other drill…completely different systems so you can have 2 dust and 1 strike or 1 dust and 2 strike or all 3 dust.
And then the 3 proposed Block XX appraisal drills are also big in terms of the current share price. So lots of back up.
Wild Horse-1 is worth about 320p a share if it strikes good and is appraised - would push MATD over 100p on the initial news.
Fox-1 is worth about 132p a share, so again initial strike pre-appraisal about 60p a share.
Red Deer-1 is worth about 32p a share and quick into production.
Gazelle-1 is worth about 8.5p a share and quick into production.
AN Other-1 drill too…is funded.
My average is now 6.9p after buying a bucket yesterday and I will continue to average down in the event of Wild Horse-1 failure on the basis that there is still big upside from Fox-1 (which has all the signs it could be oil due to excellent 3D, bright spot on 3D, a coring well done nearby which had live oils shows and also tied in excellently with the seismic), Should all 3 big ones in Blocks IV and V fail - then you are left with the Block XX drills - all worth more than the current share price and they are in effect appraisal wells with RD-1 and G-1 and the other one.
Yes, this is a puntvestment (you dont put you real investment money here)…but can you name a better one on AIM ? So much upside potential and so much back up to support the share price on failure…as there is always another drill to come and no need to raise money as all 6 wells fully funded already thanks to placings earlier this year. After yesterdays buying I now hold 850K MATD and I am very relaxed with that as a punt- but for sure its going to be very exciting on Wild Horse-1 and Fox-1 drill results for sure…
IMO MATD remains the best stock out there on AIM to put a wedge of your puntvestment money in real shares (not short term crap like spread bets) and just hold and wait through all the drills and ride the downs to get one big up in one of the remaining 5 drills - or at least a small one like G-1 coming in to get you 8.5p a share and the very final Hail Mary… if you cannot afford to lose it - don’t risk it as they say. if you can afford the punt - you have exposure to serious upside with lots of back up (5 more wells to drill).